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US and China updates to retail sales and industrial
production
Flash PMI data for Japan and Australia
GDP in Russia, Thailand and Singapore
European consumers under the spotlight
G20 Leaders' Summit
The week sees important updates to the economic picture in the
US and China, with retail sales and industrial production numbers
released. As both series form important components of nowcast
models, the numbers will give a good steer on GDP growth rates.
Retail sales in both China and the US have risen above levels of a
year ago, up 2.3% and 5.4% respectively in September, but the
picture has been more mixed for industry, with production surging
6.9% higher on a year ago in China but down 7.3% in the US.
Other releases in the US include housing market, inventories and
jobless claims data, while Kansas, Philly Fed and the Empire State
surveys give early glimpses of economic trends in November.
In Asia, other releases include flash PMIs for Japan and
Australia, giving the first clues as to economic trends midway
through the fourth quarter. Recent data have been encouraging:
Japan saw its downturn ease in October while
Australia saw its recovery gain momentum. October updates to
trade in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and India will also be
closely watched, as will GDP data for Thailand and Singapore.
Monetary policy meetings are meanwhile scheduled for Thailand,
Indonesia and the Philippines, though no changes are
anticipated.
In Europe, consumers are under the spotlight as household
sentiment data are published across the region and retail sales
data are issued in the UK. With many European countries
re-introducing lockdown measures to fight off second waves of
COVID-19 infections, the resilience of the consumer will be a key
determinant of whether fourth quarter downturns can be avoided. So
far, PMI data have indicated deteriorating trends for both the UK
and Eurozone. Both the UK and Eurozone also provide updates to
inflation.
The week also sees the G20 summit convene in Riyadh, with
expectations rising that progress will be made on a new framework
for dealing with the recent rise in indebtedness of the world's
poorest countries.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
