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Flash PMI data for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and
Australia
Bank of England meets amid flurry of official data updates,
Bank of Japan also sets policy
China data deluge, plus US industrial production to help gauge
trade war impacts
The week starts with a flurry of flash PMI updates and key
official data releases for the US and China, notably including
industrial production. The UK will meanwhile be also digesting the
general election result, as well as a clutch of official data to
feed into the last Bank of England policy decision of the month.
Monetary policy meetings also take place in Japan, Taiwan, Thailand
and Indonesia. The week closes with final third quarter GDP numbers
for the UK and US.
UK politics move into a new chapter as the country digests the
election result and implications for Brexit, but flash PMI data,
labour market stats and official updates to inflation and retail
sales will all be also eagerly awaited in a week in which the Bank
of England sets interest rates. No change is expected, but last
month saw a new split in the policy committee as two of the nine
members voted for lower rates.
Eurozone PMI data will likewise be key to determining whether
the single currency area can avoid recession, having slowed close
to stall speed in the three months to November.
Further clues as to the US economy's performance the fourth
quarter will be provided by the flash PMI surveys for manufacturing
and services from IHS Markit. The November surveys showed
encouraging signs of growth lifting higher, albeit remaining
subdued and in line with GDP growth of around 1.5%. Official
industrial production and PCE inflation numbers will also help
assess if the FOMC is likely to remain happy to stay on hold.
In Asia Pacific, a slew of economic data out of China includes
industrial production, retail sales and investment numbers, all of
which will help determine whether more stimulus will be required.
Likewise in Japan, the PMI numbers come on the heels of recently
announced fiscal stimulus, but any further faltering in the economy
will influence whether the Bank of Japan could also seek to unleash
more firepower.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.