Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 15 July 2019
- Global business outlook surveys
- China GDP
- US industrial production and retail sales
- UK labour market, retail sales and inflation
- Eurozone trade and inflation
- Special reports on Spain and India
With policymakers around the world continuing to worry about the health of the global economy, the release of IHS Markit's Global Business Outlook Survey on Monday will give fresh insight into corporate expectations for the year ahead. The survey is based on respondents from the worldwide PMIs and has been conducted three times per year since 2009, looking at output and profits expectations as well as intentions for employment and investment.
The latest survey comes at a time when the monthly PMI indicators are pointing to the weakest pace of global economic growth for three years, and will help assess how entrenched the slowdown has become.
While the US Fed and ECB have opened the door for more stimulus in the face of the deteriorating economic climate, the Bank of England has remained hawkish, albeit decreasingly so. Key UK labour market statistics, notably wage growth, will therefore be eagerly awaited for further clues as to bank's policy stance, as will retail sales and inflation data.
With the Fed already widely expected to cut interest rates at the FOMC's July meeting, the release of industrial production and retail sales data will be eyed for indications of the scale of - and indeed need for - any future loosening of policy.
In Asia, the key release is China's second quarter GDP, which we expect to show the pace of expansion easing amid escalating trade tensions. The extent of the slowdown will be important in assessing the impact of recent policy stimulus, as well as guiding the need for any potential future action from the authorities.
Our first special report looks at how Spain remains the "poster boy" of the eurozone, while our second report explores the Indian government's new roadmap for transforming India from a USD 3 trillion economy in 2019 to a USD 5 trillion economy by 2025.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Europe: Spain remains the "poster boy" of the eurozone
- APAC: India's Economic Roadmap to 2025
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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