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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the
'Download Full Report' link.
Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan and
Australia
Trade and industrial production updates
Eurozone and Japan GDP
The week ahead is disrupted by the Chinese New Year and US
Presidents' Day holidays, but nevertheless sees a busy diary of
data releases to steer the markets.
The pick of our bunch is naturally Friday's release of the
February manufacturing and services flash PMIs for the US,
Eurozone, Japan, UK and Australia, though a number of countries
also issue more backward-looking but important industrial
production, trade and retail sales updates, alongside fourth
quarter GDP estimates for Japan, the eurozone, the Netherlands and
Thailand.
Meeting minutes from the FOMC, RBA and ECB will help assess
monetary policy trends, while the central bank of Indonesia meets
to set interest rates.
Flash US PMIs for February are accompanied by the Empire State
and Philly Fed surveys plus jobless claims data, all of which will
collectively provide a lens into economic growth trajectory midway
through the first quarter. Retail sales and industrial production
numbers are also issued for January. Recent US survey data have
been strong, buoyed by vaccine roll out and fiscal stimulus,
meaning the latest FOMC minutes will also be gleaned for any clues
as to whether the Fed's accommodation could start to be reined in
earlier than many have been thinking. Inflation is becoming more of
a concern, especially after survey price indices hit
decade-highs.
In Europe, GDP data are expected to confirm that the eurozone
economy contracted in the fourth quarter, but it's the PMI data for
February that will be more closely watched for news as to whether
the downturn is intensifying in the first quarter. While the
eurozone PMI slipped into a deeper decline in January, it was a
slump in the UK surveys that was more alarming, as COVID-19 related
lockdowns were exacerbated by Brexit.
Similarly, in Asia Pacific, the PMIs for Japan and Australia
will be closely watched after January numbers showed the former
struggling amid rising virus waves but the latter continuing to
exhibit robust growth. Also watch out for GDP releases in Japan and
Thailand, jobs and retail sales updates in Australia plus trade
numbers for Japan, China, India and Indonesia.
Rajiv Biswas, Executive Director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist and
Sian Jones, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
