Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 15 April 2019
- Flash PMIs for US, Japan, Eurozone and Australia.
- China's first quarter GDP
- Key US data releases to add Fed guidance
With concern growing about a global economic slowdown, the coming week sees some important data releases to add guidance for the world's largest economies.
Updates to flash PMIs for April will provide particularly useful clues as to the pace of manufacturing growth at the start of the second quarter. Flash eurozone PMI™ numbers for March caused steep financial market declines, fuelled in particular by growing alarm regarding the extent of the downturn in Germany's manufacturing sector. Manufacturing PMIs for Japan, the US, and Australia also disappointed, having highlighted the intensifying impact of weakened trade flows on the global economy.
Hitherto resilient flash service sector PMIs will also be scoured for any signs of the slowdown spreading beyond the factory sector. The March surveys showed the global economy largely reliant on the service sector to sustain growth.
The release of first quarter GDP for China will meanwhile be eyed for confirmation that recent stimulus measures are reviving the economy after Caixin PMI data showed business conditions improving in March. New loans data are likewise eagerly awaited.
Other key releases include US industrial production, trade, housing starts and retail sales data which, alongside the PMIs, will help frame Fed policymaking. The Fed has stepped back from hiking rates this year but remains data dependent, albeit under increasing political pressure to stimulate the economy.
The extent of any impact from Brexit uncertainty on the UK economy will meanwhile be assessed from updates to the labour market, retail sales and inflation.
Euro area and Japanese trade data will also be gleaned for signs of global trade malaise.
Other key events include the Indonesian general election and South Korea's central bank meeting.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Asia Focus: APAC Green Bond Market Buoyed by UN Climate Change Agreement and ESG
Contact for further APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
Contact for European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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