Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 13 May 2019
- US-China trade war in the spotlight amid key data releases
- US industrial production and retail sales data to give insights into economic growth at the start of the second quarter
- Eurozone GDP update to include fresh insights into ECB policy, with news on German economy expected to show rebounding
- UK labour market update watched for signs of resilient hiring
US-China trade wars will be at the forefront of the news flow in the coming week, amid the spectre of escalating tit-for-tat tariffs. Our special focus this week therefore looks at the impact of the re-igniting trade war.
The effect of tariffs on China, and the extent to which policy stimulus has helped to mitigate the adverse impact on trade, will be meanwhile analysed via updated official data releases, including industrial production, retail sales, credit growth and investment.
US economy watchers will meanwhile get the first major official data releases for the start of the second quarter, with industrial production and retail sales updates. Our PMI data suggest the pace of US economic growth likely slowed to 1.9% in April, and the official data releases will form important components to updated nowcast models.
In Europe, a major focus rests on GDP data for Germany, issued alongside a second estimate of eurozone GDP and industrial production numbers. Bond markets in particular will be looking for indications as to whether the European Central Bank has overestimated the recent weakness of the region's economy. Similarly, GDP data for the Czech Republic and Poland will give clues as to how eastern European countries have fared in the pace of slower growth in the euro area.
In the UK, labour market data are the highlight of the week and will be eagerly awaited (not least by the Bank of England) in the hope that the jobs market has remained resilient. However, PMI and recruitment industry survey data have hinted strongly that the pace of hiring has eased amid escalating Brexit uncertainty, bringing wage pressures down.
Other key releases include GDP for Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Portugal, Malaysia and Russia, while Indonesia's monetary policy meeting forms the main central bank action.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Asia Pacific Special Report
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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