Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
The following is an extract from S&P Global Market
Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full
report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Fed FOMC, BoE, BoJ meetings, US and China May data
Central bank meetings will be in focus in the coming week with
the US Fed, the Bank of England
and Bank of Japan all due to update their monetary
policy decisions in the coming week. In the data docket, US retail
sales, industrial production and PPI data will be watched midway
into the second quarter. Likewise in China, where retail sales and
industrial output figures will be released. In the UK, April GDP
data and the monthly labour market report will be eagerly
awaited.
Following the US CPI data release this week, the Fed's FOMC
meeting will be the highlight in the coming week. Market sentiment
remains weak at present amid concerns over stubborn inflation and
the impact of high prices on growth, with recent US PMI data
pointing to slowing business activity amid rising prices and softer
demand. While a 50 basis point hike appears to be the forgone
conclusion at this point according to the CME FedWatch tool, the
Fed's rhetoric and projection will be eagerly followed for
indications on the path forward and the resultant impact that will
play into growth forecasts.
Meanwhile the UK, faced with slowing growth according to the
S&P Global / CIPS UK PMI, may see the Bank of England take a
more cautious 25 basis point hike amid fears of tipping the economy
into recession. For the Bank of Japan, despite USD/JPY hitting a
two-decade high, driven by yield differentials, any lifting of
interest rates is not expected. Japan had also only recently seen
growth catching up towards other developed world economies,
after virus restrictions were gradually eased.
A busy week of economic releases also brings retail sales and
industrial production data from the US and China, two countries
running at differing speeds in May. While some slowdown in the US
may be the case amid cost pressures, a slower deterioration of
conditions had been seen for mainland China in May's PMI surveys
which, if supported by the official data, could see inventor focus
shift more positively towards China, and also anticipate some
easing of global supply constraints.
BoE and Fed policy meetings in focus
Policy announcements are due in the coming week from the US FOMC
and the Bank of England. A 50 basis point hike is penciled in for
the FOMC as policymakers seek to rein-in inflation at a time of
still-robust business activity grow. In the UK, the policy decision
is less clear-cut. While inflation is likewise at a multi-decade
high, UK growth is faltering, meaning there's a greater risk that
tighter policy could spark a recession in the UK compared to the
US.
Key diary events
Monday 13 Jun Australia Market Holiday
United Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and
Construction Output (Apr)
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
Norway GDP (Apr)
India Industrial Output (Apr)
Tuesday 14 Jun
Australia Home Price Index (Q1)
Germany HICP (May, final)
United Kingdom Labour Market Report (May)
India CPI, WPI (May)
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
United States PPI (May)
Canada Manufacturing Sales (Apr)
Wednesday 15 Jun
New Zealand Current Account (Q1)
Japan Machinery Orders (Apr)
South Korea Export and Import Growth (May)
China (Mainland) Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Urban Investment
(May)
Indonesia Trade (May)
Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr)
Eurozone Reserve Assets Total (May)
Canada House Starts (May)
United States Retail Sales (May)
United States Business Inventories (Apr)
United States Fed FOMC Meeting
Thursday 16 Jun
Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (Jun)
New Zealand GDP (Q1)
Japan Trade (May)
Australia Unemployment Rate (May)
Switzerland SNB Policy Rate (Q2)
United Kingdom BOE Bank Rate (Jun)
United States Building Permits (May)
United States Housing Starts (May)
United States Initial Jobless Claims
Canada Wholesale Trade (Apr)
Taiwan Discount Rate (Q2)
Friday 17 Jun
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (May)
Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May)
Eurozone HICP (May, final)
Canada Producer Prices (May)
United States Industrial Production (May)
Japan BOJ Rate Decision
* Press releases of indices produced by S&P Global and
relevant sponsors
can be found here.
What to watch
North America: Fed FOMC meeting, US retail sales,
industrial production and PPI data
The June Fed FOMC meeting unfolds with the Fed's policy
decision, post-meeting statement and projections all due Wednesday.
A 50 basis point hike is widely expected and has been supported by
recent Fed officials' rhetoric. This is against the backdrop of
elevated US inflation in April with the latest
S&P Global US Composite PMI data likewise pointing to
further rapid price gains in May.
Growth figures will be in focus after Fed chair Jerome Powell
commented in May that the central bank wants to see economic growth
slowing in the attempt to tame inflation. US data of interest in
this respect includes retail sales and industrial production as
well as housing market data.
Europe: BoE meeting, UK April output and labour data,
German ZEW survey
The Bank of England also convenes in the coming week and markets
are fully pricing-in a 25 basis point rise in June with further
hikes expected drive rates up to 2.5% from the current 1% by the
end of the year. However, UK recession risks have risen, adding
uncertainty to the rate path as weaker growth will help to tame
inflation. This also comes after private sector output growth
slowed for a second month running in May, according to the
S&P Global / CIPS UK PMI data. Fresh UK GDP data for April
and a full round-up of labour market data, including wage growth,
will therefore be important to watch for any signs of growth
faltering and second-round inflation effects.
Asia-Pacific: BoJ meeting, China retail sales and
industrial output figures, India inflation data
The Bank of Japan also updates their monetary policy decision.
With the BoJ sticking to keeping interest rates low while developed
world central banks, including the Fed, tightens monetary policy,
currency fluctuations had been in focus. How the BoJ positions
themselves in such an environment will be in focus.
Other key data due includes China's May retail sales and
industrial output figures after PMI data showed improvements in
readings, albeit in contraction territory.
Special reports
Global Price Pressures Hold Near Record High Amid
Unprecedented Rise in Service Sector Costs - Chris
Williamson
APAC Electronics Sector Faces Headwinds from Surging
Input Prices and Supply Chain Delays - Rajiv Biswas
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
