Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 13 July 2020
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
- Industrial production numbers for the US, China, Eurozone, UK and Japan
- US and China retail sales
- China, UK and Singapore GDP
- Bank of Japan and ECB policy meetings
The coming week sees policy meetings at the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank accompanied by industrial output numbers for the world's largest economies, as well as retail sales data for the US and China. The latter also releases its second quarter GDP. Inflation data for the US, Eurozone and UK will also be eyed as markets try to assess whether inflation or deflation looks set to dominate the post-COVID world.
The earnings season also starts in earnest with some key tech and financial names including Microsoft, Netflix, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Pepsi, Honeywell, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and Blackrock.
In the US, June updates to industrial production and retail sales will give clues as to the durability of the upturn after rebounds seen in the May data. While surveys have signalled further vigour in terms of economic growth momentum in June, concerns have been fuelled that the upturn could already be losing steam amid renewed COVID-19 lockdowns (page 3).
UK monthly GDP for May, including a split of manufacturing, services and construction data, will be accompanied by inflation numbers and a detailed labour market report. In the Eurozone, industrial production, inflation and trade numbers take the limelight ahead of Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting. The eurozone's central bankers extended their asset purchase scheme to June 2021 at the last meeting, but the majority of economists believe further policy announcements will be needed in coming months as the economy struggles to find strong growth momentum after the COVID-19 shock (page 4).
In Asia, China's second quarter GDP is the pick of the data releases, though the higher-frequency industrial production and retail sales data for June will provide important detail on whether the rebound since February's lockdown has legs. The Bank of Japan's latest monetary policy meeting meanwhile comes on the heels of signs that Japan's economic recovery is lagging behind the global average. Industrial production data will add insight in this regard (page 5).
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
- Global inflation peak signalled as supply delays ease and demand falters
- Global growth buoyed in June by China upturn, but worldwide demand growth hits weakest for nearly two years and business prospects sour
- US PMI data show demand for goods and services falling in June, taking pressure off prices
- Business activity revives across manufacturing and services in June, but demand headwinds persist amid ongoing COVID-19 restrictions
- Eurozone PMI signals growth in June but downturn risks rise amid weakening leading indicators
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