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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead
Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports)
please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Industrial production numbers for the US, China, Eurozone, UK
and Japan
US and China retail sales
China, UK and Singapore GDP
Bank of Japan and ECB policy meetings
The coming week sees policy meetings at the Bank of Japan and
the European Central Bank accompanied by industrial output numbers
for the world's largest economies, as well as retail sales data for
the US and China. The latter also releases its second quarter GDP.
Inflation data for the US, Eurozone and UK will also be eyed as
markets try to assess whether inflation or deflation looks set to
dominate the post-COVID world.
The earnings season also starts in earnest with some key tech
and financial names including Microsoft, Netflix, IBM, Johnson
& Johnson, Pepsi, Honeywell, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley,
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and Blackrock.
In the US, June updates to industrial production and retail
sales will give clues as to the durability of the upturn after
rebounds seen in the May data. While surveys have signalled further
vigour in terms of economic growth momentum in June, concerns have
been fuelled that the upturn could already be losing steam amid
renewed COVID-19 lockdowns (page 3).
UK monthly GDP for May, including a split of manufacturing,
services and construction data, will be accompanied by inflation
numbers and a detailed labour market report. In the Eurozone,
industrial production, inflation and trade numbers take the
limelight ahead of Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting. The
eurozone's central bankers extended their asset purchase scheme to
June 2021 at the last meeting, but the majority of economists
believe further policy announcements will be needed in coming
months as the economy struggles to find strong growth momentum
after the COVID-19 shock (page 4).
In Asia, China's second quarter GDP is the pick of the data
releases, though the higher-frequency industrial production and
retail sales data for June will provide important detail on whether
the rebound since February's lockdown has legs. The Bank of Japan's
latest monetary policy meeting meanwhile comes on the heels of
signs that Japan's economic recovery is lagging behind the global
average. Industrial production data will add insight in this regard
(page 5).
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
