Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 12 August 2019
- US and China industrial production, retail sales and inflation data
- Germany and Eurozone GDP
- UK labour market update
- Special report on US-China trade war
Key data releases include industrial production data for the US, China and Eurozone, as well as German GDP numbers and an important UK labour market update. Indications of consumer spending will meanwhile be provided by retail sales updates in the US, China and UK, alongside inflation data for the US, UK and China.
Industrial production in the US, China and Eurozone will be eyed for the impact of escalating trade wars (see special report on page 6), and are likely to make for gloomy reading. The official data come on the heels of PMI surveys which showed global manufacturing output falling in July at the sharpest rate since 2012. Disappointing data will add to expectations of further central bank stimulus around the world.
US consumers are expected to continue to provide better news, with retail sales widely expected to show spending propping up the economy and offsetting some of the factory gloom. More insight into US trends will also be gleaned from regional manufacturing and consumer confidence surveys for August (see page 3).
A mass release of official data in China will likewise provide insights into manufacturing, retail and lending trends, and will be scoured for signs that the authorities' attempts to stimulate domestic demand are helping to offset the adverse impact of trade frictions. Other key releases in Asia include GDP updates for Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong (see page 5).
Surveys meanwhile suggest UK retail sales could disappoint as Brexit clouds gather, but it will be the labour market that takes centre stage. Official jobs data have been buoyant, but recent recruitment surveys have signalled slower hiring and wage growth trends (page 4).
In the eurozone, second quarter GDP data are updated after the flash release signalled a slowing of quarterly growth to 0.2%. A key release will be Germany's GDP, which PMI data suggest could register a 0.1% decline. With PMI data also disappointing in July, Germany is at risk of sliding into recession (page 4).
Download the report for the full content which includes:
Key diary events
US week ahead
Europe week ahead
Asia Pacific week ahead
US-China trade war escalates as China designated a 'currency manipulator'
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
- Zimbabwe's currency swap deal
- Wuhan Virus: Economic risks to the Asia-Pacific region
- India policy disputes
- GDP effect of a longer pause in 737 MAX production
- Indonesia industrial disruption
- Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities move higher on restocking and trade-deal momentum
- Latin America and the Iran-US conflict
- Al-Shabaab attacks Kenya