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Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 11 October 2021

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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The week ahead brings a busy economic calendar with inflation data due from the US and China plus GDP and labour market updates from the UK. Trade data from China and the UK, plus US retail sales, are also issued. Monetary policy meetings in South Korea and Singapore are in the calendar, though for central bank watchers the focus will be on the FOMC minutes.

September's Fed FOMC meeting alluded to the Fed's intention to taper 'soon'. While largely expected, the meeting leaned on the hawkish end and further details from the meeting minutes will scrutinised to assess lift-off criteria. At the same time, US inflation figures will also be eyed warily amid ongoing market jitters with regard to elevated prices. Global manufacturing prices notably accelerated in September amid supply shortages and steeper shipping costs, with the US being one of the developed economies that continued to experience severely elevated price pressures.

China's factory gate inflation is likewise expected to stay aloft as inflationary pressures picked up in September amid material shortages, according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI. Retail sales will also be in focus after COVID-19 outbreaks receded.

In the UK, supply issues continued to snowball in the post-Brexit reality and official GDP data for August will provide an update to the extent to which growth has been hampered. As far as the IHS Markit/CIPS UK indicated, output growth had slowed sharply in the month, hit by the constraints. The UK's labour market data will also be eyed for signs of rising wage pressures.

PMI commentary: Chris Williamson, Jingyi Pan

APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas

© 2021, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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