Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 11 November 2019
- US-China trade war impact to be gleaned from industrial production and retail sales updates
- Global business outlook surveys
- US and China inflation
- UK GDP and labour market updates
- Special reports on Spain's growth slowdown and an overview of the new RCEP free trade agreement in Asia-Pacific
US-China trade developments are dominating markets and the coming week will see the release of important indicators of how both economies have been faring. Industrial production updates will give insight into the impact on manufacturing while retail sales numbers will help assess the scale of any spill-over to consumers. IHS Markit's Global Outlook Survey also reveals business expectations for the year ahead from a panel of 12,000 companies and will give further clues as to trends in economic growth, which the monthly PMI showed to have slipped globally to its lowest since February 2016.
For the US, the PMI survey data hint at some steadying of manufacturing from the downturn seen earlier this year, but both inflation and retail sales could remain under pressure amid signs that weak demand is limiting pricing power. Service sector inflows of new business were the lowest since 2009 in October. Fresh inflation numbers will also be eagerly awaited.
For China, the overall picture from the PMI surveys remains one of an economy struggling as trade war tensions exacerbate the underlying trend of slower economic growth. Elsewhere in Asia, the week brings GDP updates from Japan, Malaysia and Hong Kong, while New Zealand and the Philippines will decide on monetary policy.
In Europe, third quarter GDP growth trends will be revealed for Germany and the UK, both of which are skirting with recession. The latter also sees key labour market updates, which will be eagerly assessed by a divided monetary policy committee at the Bank of England.
Our special reports this week look at why Spain is set for slower economic growth over the coming year (page 6) ahead of a general election widely expected to deliver more uncertainty, and we discuss the potential impact of the new RCEP free trade agreement in Asia-Pacific.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Gains in Spain clearly on the wane
- RCEP Deal Creates Giant New FTA in the Asia-Pacific
- PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
- Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
- APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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