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US-China trade war impact to be gleaned from industrial
production and retail sales updates
Global business outlook surveys
US and China inflation
UK GDP and labour market updates
Special reports on Spain's growth slowdown and an overview of
the new RCEP free trade agreement in Asia-Pacific
US-China trade developments are dominating markets and the
coming week will see the release of important indicators of how
both economies have been faring. Industrial production updates will
give insight into the impact on manufacturing while retail sales
numbers will help assess the scale of any spill-over to consumers.
IHS Markit's Global Outlook Survey also reveals business
expectations for the year ahead from a panel of 12,000 companies
and will give further clues as to trends in economic growth, which
the monthly PMI showed to have slipped globally to its lowest since
February 2016.
For the US, the PMI survey data hint at some steadying of
manufacturing from the downturn seen earlier this year, but both
inflation and retail sales could remain under pressure amid signs
that weak demand is limiting pricing power. Service sector inflows
of new business were the lowest since 2009 in October. Fresh
inflation numbers will also be eagerly awaited.
For China, the overall picture from the PMI surveys remains one
of an economy struggling as trade war tensions exacerbate the
underlying trend of slower economic growth. Elsewhere in Asia, the
week brings GDP updates from Japan, Malaysia and Hong Kong, while
New Zealand and the Philippines will decide on monetary policy.
In Europe, third quarter GDP growth trends will be revealed for
Germany and the UK, both of which are skirting with recession. The
latter also sees key labour market updates, which will be eagerly
assessed by a divided monetary policy committee at the Bank of
England.
Our special reports this week look at why Spain is set for
slower economic growth over the coming year (page 6) ahead of a
general election widely expected to deliver more uncertainty, and
we discuss the potential impact of the new RCEP free trade
agreement in Asia-Pacific.
Download the report for the full content which
includes:
Global overview
Key diary events
US week ahead
Europe week ahead
Asia Pacific week ahead
Special report
Gains in Spain clearly on the wane
RCEP Deal Creates Giant New FTA in the Asia-Pacific
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.