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UK monthly GDP plus Eurozone industrial production
With COVID-19 infections rising sharply in many countries, the
focus will be on the path of the virus and extent to which
economies will have to be locked down in the first quarter, as well
naturally as the policy response, notably in the US. However, the
week ahead also sees some important economic data releases which
will give further clues as to the extent to which various major
economies managed to continue to recover in the fourth quarter.
Leading the bill is fourth quarter GDP for China which, with
just around 100,000 virus cases and 5,000 deaths reported in total,
has seen life return almost to normal, boosting economic activity
according to the PMI surveys. Hence the fourth quarter is expected
to have seen China's GDP growth accelerate from 4.8% in the third
quarter to approximately 6.5%. Of particular interest will be the
accompanying higher frequency data on industrial production and
retail sales, as these will give details of growth momentum both
among manufacturers and consumers in December.
Similarly in the US, where tensions could build again in the
lead up to the Presidential inauguration on 20th January,
industrial production and retail sales data will provide important
steers on fourth quarter economic growth nowcasts, albeit only up
to November. The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment survey
will add some more timely insight into how the pandemic and
political environment have affected sentiment in January. Jobless
claims and job openings data will meanwhile help clarify the latest
labour market trends, and we also see updates to the NFIB survey
and the Beige Book.
In Europe, Brexit-watchers will be further assessing the impact
of the end of the UK's transition period, the lead up to which is
likely to have provided a temporary boost to November's GDP
numbers, which are released on Friday. The Eurozone also sees
updated industrial production data, which surveys hint at showing
robust growth, albeit dependent to a large extent on Germany.
Central bank action meanwhile comes in the form of interest rate
decisions in South Korea and Poland.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
