Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 10 June 2019
- China and US industrial production and retail sales updates to provide trade war impact assessment
- Eurozone second quarter production insights
- UK employment report and GDP data to give BoE guidance
- Special reports on China's countermeasures in the US trade war and Eurozone export woes
With tensions rising between the US and China, the impact of the escalating trade war will be under scrutiny amid fresh data from both economies. China updates its industrial production, retail sales, lending and investment data, which will shed light on the extent to which stimulus measures may be helping offset the impact of the trade war, and whether more stimulus might be expected (see page 5).
Similarly, the US, industrial production and retail sales updates will give further steers on the Fed's next move after. Markets have increasingly priced-in rate cuts for later in 2019 (see page 3) amid growing worries about growth prospects.
The European Central Bank has meanwhile joined the US Fed in growing more uneasy about the outlook, and official industrial production data will be eyed for confirmation of recent survey data which have signalled a disappointing second quarter so far in terms of both GDP growth and price pressures (see page 4).
While the Bank of England continues to hope that a clean Brexit will open the door for tighter policy in the UK, much could depend on how the labour market has shaped up, shifting the focus to updated jobs growth and wage data. However, with PMI surveys hinting that the UK economy's resilience in the first quarter is fading in the second quarter, GDP data for April will also be eagerly awaited (see page 4).
This week we have two highly-topical special reports. One looks at China's countermeasures in the escalating US-China trade war (see page 6), while the second analyses the recent data on eurozone growth and the prospects for the region, focusing in particular from an export perspective (see page 9).
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- China's Countermeasures in the Trade War with the US
- Eurozone economy stuck in a rut
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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