Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 10 January 2022
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
The week ahead packs a wealth of economic data to watch with inflation numbers out of the US and China expected to be the highlights. December US retail sales and industrial production will also be eagerly awaited, while in Europe, the UK November GDP data plus eurozone industrial production and unemployment rate are likely to be the key data to watch.
Global equity markets commenced the year on a positive note but soon saw week-to-date gains erased with renewed interest rate concerns, following the release of the December Fed FOMC meeting minutes. Hints of potentially faster-than-expected normalisation of interest rates, possibly starting as early as March, sent equity prices trading lower post release. While this continues to fall in line with the IHS Markit forecast of a first hike between March and June, with the May meeting being the most plausible timing, an increased focus on inflation data may well be the case moving into 2022. Some early signs of easing price pressures were recorded by the IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI which saw cost inflation ease to the softest since June. Any cooling of price pressures with next week's CPI and PPI data may offer the market some relief, although any exacerbation of the ongoing COVID-19 conditions amid the Omicron variant's spread will be equally watched for implications.
Meanwhile UK's November GDP growth figures will be in focus as concerns grow over the outlook, with more recent data hinting at the economy being hit by Brexit and the Omicron variant's spread.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson, Jingyi Pan
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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