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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special
Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Second quarter GDP data for Japan, the UK, Russia, Hong Kong
SAR, Taiwan and Singapore
US, China, Eurozone, UK and India industrial production
US and China retail sales
UK labour market stats
The coming week will see a clutch of GDP updates to shed further
light on the extent of the global economic collapse at the height
of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter, but will also see
the release of more timely industrial production and retail sales
data for key economies which will help assess recovery paths. In
addition to the economic data, the earnings season continues with
more than 600 firms reporting.
After news of the US economy contracting at a record 32.9%
annual rate in the second quarter, eyes turn to industrial
production and retail sales updates for July to gauge the recovery
path heading into the third quarter. June had already shown
rebounds in sales and production, but doubts as to the durability
of these rebounds have been raised amid redoubled efforts to stem
increased COVID-19 infection rates. PMI data, for example, showed
demand faltering during July amid the re-imposition of lockdown
measures (page 3).
Similarly, industrial production and retail sales data, as well
as investment numbers, will be eyed in China to steer estimates of
third quarter economic performance. China saw GDP rise by 3.2% on a
year in the second quarter after falling 6.8% in the first quarter
- the first such fall for decades - reflecting China's earlier
lockdown and subsequent reopening of its economy. The rest of Asia
locked down later, which will likely be reflected in dismal second
quarter GDP numbers for Japan, signalling a deepening recession, as
well as Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan and Singapore (page 5).
In Europe, UK second quarter GDP is expected to show a
double-digit decline but the monthly estimate for June, including
manufacturing, services and construction updates, should cement
signs of recovery taking hold after the recent improvements evident
in PMI data. Job market data will also be important in assessing
wider UK recovery prospects. Similarly, industrial production
numbers for the eurozone will be eagerly awaited amid growing hopes
of a strong initial industrial rebound for the region (page 4).
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
