Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 10 August 2020
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
- Second quarter GDP data for Japan, the UK, Russia, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan and Singapore
- US, China, Eurozone, UK and India industrial production
- US and China retail sales
- UK labour market stats
The coming week will see a clutch of GDP updates to shed further light on the extent of the global economic collapse at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter, but will also see the release of more timely industrial production and retail sales data for key economies which will help assess recovery paths. In addition to the economic data, the earnings season continues with more than 600 firms reporting.
After news of the US economy contracting at a record 32.9% annual rate in the second quarter, eyes turn to industrial production and retail sales updates for July to gauge the recovery path heading into the third quarter. June had already shown rebounds in sales and production, but doubts as to the durability of these rebounds have been raised amid redoubled efforts to stem increased COVID-19 infection rates. PMI data, for example, showed demand faltering during July amid the re-imposition of lockdown measures (page 3).
Similarly, industrial production and retail sales data, as well as investment numbers, will be eyed in China to steer estimates of third quarter economic performance. China saw GDP rise by 3.2% on a year in the second quarter after falling 6.8% in the first quarter - the first such fall for decades - reflecting China's earlier lockdown and subsequent reopening of its economy. The rest of Asia locked down later, which will likely be reflected in dismal second quarter GDP numbers for Japan, signalling a deepening recession, as well as Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan and Singapore (page 5).
In Europe, UK second quarter GDP is expected to show a double-digit decline but the monthly estimate for June, including manufacturing, services and construction updates, should cement signs of recovery taking hold after the recent improvements evident in PMI data. Job market data will also be important in assessing wider UK recovery prospects. Similarly, industrial production numbers for the eurozone will be eagerly awaited amid growing hopes of a strong initial industrial rebound for the region (page 4).
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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