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The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week
Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special
Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
Worldwide PMI updates for manufacturing and services in
May
US monthly jobs report
Monetary policy meetings in Eurozone, Canada and Australia
The week ahead sees the PMI business surveys provide the first
major insights into global economic trends in May, with clues being
sought as to not only the depth of the downturn but also the speed
with which economies can recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Other
key events include US non-farm payrolls and monetary policy
meetings at the ECB, Bank of Canada and RBA.
Provisional PMI data hint that the global downturn may have
already peaked back in April, with rates of decline having eased
markedly in the US, Eurozone, Japan and UK in May. If lockdowns are
lifted further in coming months, as planned, a return to growth
looks possible for many economies as we head into the third
quarter. With markets showing signs of reduced pessimism on the
economic outlook, analysts will therefore be hoping that the final
global PMIs will confirm an easing from April's unprecedented rate
of economic contraction. China's PMI data will prove especially
interesting as a bellwether for other economies, as China has
relaxed many of its COVID-19 restrictions earlier than other
countries.
In the US, the IHS Markit PMI and ISM surveys are followed by
the monthly employment report, which is expected to show further
widespread job losses and another increase in the unemployment rate
beyond the current post-war record of 14.7%. Other key US releases
include factory orders and trade data.
In Europe, the PMI releases are swiftly followed by the ECB's
Governing Council meeting, for which we see a high likelihood of
further stimulus being announced. Euro area unemployment and retail
sales data are also updated, as are UK mortgage approvals.
In Asia, Caixin and NBS PMI releases are joined by Japan, South
Korea and Australia updating their GDP numbers, with the latter
also setting monetary policy, for which further easing is
anticipated. Other highlights include Hong Kong SAR retail sales,
trade figures in Australia, China, South Korea and Malaysia, plus
inflation data in Thailand, Taiwan, the Philippines and
Indonesia.
Joseph Hayes, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit and
Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist, IHS Markit and
Rajiv Biswas, Executive Director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit and
Sian Jones, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
