Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 1 July 2019
- Worldwide manufacturing and services PMI surveys
- US employment report including non-farm payrolls
- Special reports on the Bank of England
A busy week includes key data releases that could steer monetary policy around the globe. The week starts with the publication of worldwide manufacturing PMI surveys, which will be closely watched for the impact of escalating trade wars, followed on Wednesday by service PMIs. The non-farm payroll report for the US completes the week on Friday.
Central banks have grown increasingly dovish on concerns that the global economy is slowing, with PMIs having provided the first such signs of weakening last year, culminating in the latest data for May sliding to a three-year low. The June PMI data will therefore provide important steers for monetary policy in the world's most important central banks.
In the US, the FOMC is under increasing pressure from financial markets to cut interest rates, and any further disappointing data in the form of PMI surveys and the monthly employment report will add to speculation that rates could be cut as soon as July (see page 3).
In Europe, PMI surveys and official industrial production numbers for the Eurozone will likewise be eyed for additional evidence to support the ECB's recent shift to an increasingly dovish stance. In the UK, the fog of Brexit has tied the hands of policymakers, but PMI data will be important in ascertaining the strength of the economy in the second quarter (see page 4). The plight of the Bank of England forms the focus of our special report on page 6.
In Asia, PMI data will give clues as to the impact of trade wars, notably on China but also on the region's other manufacturing hubs. Evidence of supply chains switching as a result of US-China tensions will also be monitored, amid evidence that countries such as Vietnam are benefitting (see page 5).
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Hawkish Bank of England on hold amid Brexit uncertainty
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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