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Central bank rate setting meetings include the UK, Australia
and India
Eurozone fourth quarter GDP
A full economic calendar for the week kicks off with worldwide
PMI surveys and closes with the monthly US nonfarm payroll report.
Sandwiched between are policy decisions from three of the world's
major central banks.
The PMI surveys will be closely watched, having shown escalating
risks of double dip recessions in the eurozone and UK as tightening
COVID-19 restrictions constrain economies again, albeit to markedly
lesser extents than in early 2020. Global growth has shown
encouraging resilience though, thanks to sustained strong
expansions in many other economies, notably including the US and
China. The weak spot remains consumer services, and in particular
cross-border services, such as travel and tourism (
a full overview of the December PMIs is available here).
For the US, economic insights into the performance of the
economy from the IHS Markit and ISM manufacturing and services PMIs
are accompanied by the official labour market data. Analysts are
anticipating a renewed rise in nonfarm payrolls after the slide
into decline recorded in December, but the jobs numbers are
expected to remain subdued compared to prior months in the
recovery.
In Europe, the Bank of England is expected to follow in the
footsteps of the FOMC, stressing the need to policy to remain
accommodative long into the future as the pandemic poses ongoing
risks. In the UK, Brexit disruptions have added to the country's
third lockdown woes, driving output sharply lower in January.
Similarly in Asia, the reserve banks of India and Australia are
likely to lean towards dovish stances. Although both economies have
shown strong rebounds since the initial impact of the pandemic,
policymakers remain worried about the potential for renewed
weakness amid further waves of the virus either at home or abroad.
Supply delays have also muddied the water for policymakers
somewhat, meaning recent PMI data will also be eyed for indications
that supply constraints and associated spike in prices for many
goods will have started to ease.
Contact us
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
Posted 29 January 2021 by Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit and
Ken Wattret, Vice President, Economics, IHS Markit and
Rajiv Biswas, Executive Director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist and
Sian Jones, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
