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Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 06 January 2020
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the article.
- European industrial production data
- IHS Markit Services & Composite PMI data
- US non-farm payrolls
- China and eurozone inflation
The first full week of 2020 looks set to kick off the year with a bang and is busy with economic data releases. Trends across retail sales, industrial production and inflation will give an early view to the health of the global economy as we begin a new decade.
Kickstarting the widely anticipated calendar releases for the final month of 2019 are the publication of services and composite PMI data across the world. Signals from flash data pointed to further lacklustre performances across key regions, with activity across the eurozone and Japan remaining subdued, and US private sector firms indicating only a modest pick-up in output.
Eyes will be drawn to November industrial production data, with newly published figures expected to point to a slow recovery across many economies. The release of output figures across Europe, including Germany, Spain, France and Italy, will be keenly assessed for more positive signals towards the end of 2019. On the consumer side, retail sales data are published along with consumer confidence, amid expectations that unemployment for the euro area will stay close to the low seen in October.
Meanwhile, US non-farm payrolls growth is expected to moderate from the high seen in November, when already strong employment data was boosted by the return to work of GM workers following their extended strike. Nonetheless, our flash US PMI data suggested a pick-up in the pace of overall private sector output growth at the end of 2019, which is likely to translate to another solid round of hiring.
Official industrial production figures will also be released for India. Following concerning signals from October data, the India Manufacturing PMI suggests an improvement in conditions towards the end of 2019.
Finally, the rate of inflation in China will be watched with interest, hot on the heels of monetary stimulus in the form of a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by the People's Bank of China.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
Recent week ahead economic previews
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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