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The health of Venezuela's power system has not visibly improved
since the massive blackouts of March 2019 that plunged the country
into widespread and prolonged darkness. As the global coronavirus
(COVID-19) pandemic spreads to Venezuela (at time of writing
Venezuela has 159 confirmed cases, a number that is comparatively
low but rising and very unreliable), another major power grid
failure could rapidly trigger a severe health crisis there.
Venezuela's blackouts stem from failures across the power
sector: it lacks spare parts, fuel, qualified technicians, upkeep
and investments. Only about one third of the country's installed
power generation capacity is operational today, and most of this
functioning capacity is hydro plants. Yet Venezuela's dry season is
now starting, limiting hydro generation levels. The dry season also
brings wildfires that test the transmission system if the clearing
of vegetation is not done properly (wildfires began the March 2019
blackouts).
The state of the power system will shape Venezuela's ability to
respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Electricity is needed to run
ventilators and other critical hospital equipment, to disseminate
health information and coordinate the response of emergency
workers, and to bring water to Caracas—the capital's water
supplies depend on pumping stations powered by rundown thermal
power plants.
Unfortunately, repairing the decrepit power system will take
billions of dollars and many years—too long compared with the
virus' rapid propagation. To diminish the risk of crippling
blackouts in the short term, Venezuela will need to apply
"band-aid" solutions: the acquisition and installation of mobile
generation units, the strategic curtailment of power supplies to
bring power where most needed, and the rapid execution of basic
system maintenance—including on the critical transmission lines
and substations connecting Venezuela's eastern hydropower cluster
to the rest of the country.
Completing even barebone duties to avoid simultaneous blows from
COVID-19 and blackouts will challenge this country damaged by power
struggles, widespread corruption, economic meltdown—now
exacerbated by the collapsing price of oil, Venezuela's main source
of revenue—and the exodus of skilled labor. There is little
indication that the Maduro government and the military, which now
oversees the power system, can pull it off.
If the government of Nicolás Maduro is unable to contain a
COVID-19 outbreak in Venezuela, then the likelihood that the
military overthrows him increases somewhat. Removing Maduro from
power is more likely if there are also consistent fuel shortages, a
full collapse of the electricity grid, a lack of financial and
medical support from China and Russia, increased pressure from the
international community, a collapse of public and private
hospitals, and an inability by the security forces to contain
widespread looting.
