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A mutiny by national guardsmen on 21 January has sparked violent
anti-government unrest in Venezuela's capital Caracas.
A total of 43 guardsmen have been arrested after, according to
Venezuelan officials, attempting to steal weapons from a military
barracks in Petare, Caracas.
Their arrest has sparked anti-government protests in
traditionally chavista areas located to the west of Caracas,
including in places such as Cotiza, 23 de Enero, El Valle, and
Antímano.
The top military command remains loyal to President Maduro.
Such loyalty, however, will likely be stretched if the protests
escalate and the government violently represses unrest in shanty
towns. The use of force against those living in these areas would
likely accelerate discontent among junior ranks and middle-ranking
officers, increasing the probability of new insurrections taking
place.
Forty-three members of the National Guard were arrested on 21
January after delivering a message through social media calling on
the armed forces not to recognize President Nicolas Maduro, and for
their participation in anti-government protests. A statement from
Minister of Defense Padrino López claimed that the arrestees,
all from 43 Command of the National Guard, had stolen weapons from
a barracks in the locality of Petare in the Caracas Sucre
municipality that same day.
The Venezuelan economy has been in recession since 2014 and is
now facing acutely adverse conditions. IHS Markit forecasts its
real GDP to decline by more than 15% with the inflation rate
reaching 3,000,000% in 2019. Oil production, exports of which
generate over 95% of foreign-exchange earnings, is likely to fall
to about 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), down 75% from 2.4 million
bpd in 2015. These dire economic conditions have also intensified
shortages of basic products which, together with water and
electricity supply problems, have generated increased discontent
among junior ranks and middle-ranking officers.
Similar failed mutinies/coup attempts in the last two years have
included an attack on a military base in Valencia, Carabobo, to
steal weapons, an attack on the Supreme Court and Ministry of
Interior, and a UAV assassination attempt against Maduro at a
military parade on 6 August 2017. All of those attempts were
initiated in isolation by a relatively small number of disgruntled
officers and junior ranks, and were quickly defused by the
government. Maduro was sworn in for a new 2019-25 mandate on 10
January, but his government has not been recognized by the US,
Canada, the EU, and most Latin American countries.
Protest in western Caracas
The 21 January incident has sparked protests in the west of
Caracas. Protests in support of the arrested national guards and
against the government have emerged in the neighborhood of San
José de Cotiza in the Libertador municipality as well as in
locations such as 23 de Enero, Antímano, Autopista Caracas -
La Guaira, Avenida Fuerzas Armadas, Avenida Panteón, El Valle,
and La Pastora. Security forces have been deployed to some parts of
western Caracas to contain the situation. IHS Markit understands
that tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition has been used
against protesters in Cotiza, that there has been looting incidents
in locations such as El Valle, and that protesters have also set on
fire the house of a late ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela: PSUV) member in La Pastora
neighborhood. The president of the opposition-controlled National
Assembly, Juan Guaidó, who has said that he is ready to assume
the interim presidency of Venezuela if the people and armed forces
supported him, has also called for an anti-government march on 23
January.
Outlook and implications
Despite Venezuela's economic situation, and international
pressure seeking a timetable for early free and fair elections, the
high military command continues to be loyal to the government. Top
officers currently have little incentive to withdraw support for
Maduro as he has granted control to the armed forces of oil, ports,
and imports, and some military factions are directly involved in
illegal activities, including drug trafficking, fuel smuggling, and
illegal mining.
The emergence of protests within the western part of Caracas,
however, will test their loyalty to Maduro. The military has
historically obeyed orders to repress anti-government protests in
middle-class areas located in east Caracas. The capital's west,
however, has historically been a chavista stronghold. This part of
the city is where the Miraflores Presidential Palace is located and
the government rarely allows any protests in the area that could
potentially undermine its stability. The forceful repression of
protesters in this part of the city, including the use of
pro-government armed groups, would be an important indicator during
the upcoming days and weeks. The use of tear gas or even live fire,
resulting in wounding or mass arrests of those living in shanty
towns, would likely accelerate anti-government discontent in the
security forces, increasing the likelihood of new mutinies among
the military and of defections among the military leadership. The
rapid containment of shanty-town protests, without excessive use of
force, would, however, indicate that the military is still in
control, loyal to Maduro, and capable of managing any foreseeable
level of discontent within shanty towns.
Posted 24 January 2019 by Carlos Cardenas, Director, Latin America Country Risk and
