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Monthly GDP rose 1.0% in September following a 0.6% increase in
August (unrevised). The increase in September reflected gains in
personal consumption expenditures, nonfarm inventory investment,
net exports, and residential investment that were partially offset
by declines in the portion of government spending we track with
monthly source data and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by
the monthly source data. The level of GDP in September was 3.3%
above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our
latest tracking forecast of 5.1% annualized GDP growth in the
fourth quarter are increases in monthly GDP averaging 0.3% per
month over the three months of the fourth quarter.
Our index
of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate
output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The
Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons:
first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly
source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the
method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for
official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined
primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and
growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to
growth of real GDP.
Posted 03 November 2020 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director and
