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Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in September following 1.0% growth in
August (unrevised). The increase in September reflected increases
in domestic final sales and nonfarm inventory investment that were
partially offset by a decrease in net exports. About one-half of
the increase in domestic final sales was accounted for by personal
consumption expenditures.
The level of GDP in September was 1.9% above the third-quarter
average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 4.9%
(annualized) GDP growth in the fourth quarter are increases in
monthly GDP averaging 0.3% per month (not annualized) over the
three months of the fourth quarter.
Our index
of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real
aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts.
The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons:
first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly
source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the
method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for
official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined
primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and
growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to
growth of real GDP.
Posted 01 November 2021 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director and
William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
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