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US Monthly GDP Index for September 2021

01 November 2021 Ben Herzon, Ph.D. William Magee

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in September following 1.0% growth in August (unrevised). The increase in September reflected increases in domestic final sales and nonfarm inventory investment that were partially offset by a decrease in net exports. About one-half of the increase in domestic final sales was accounted for by personal consumption expenditures.

US GDP forecast and assumptions October 2021

The level of GDP in September was 1.9% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 4.9% (annualized) GDP growth in the fourth quarter are increases in monthly GDP averaging 0.3% per month (not annualized) over the three months of the fourth quarter.

US GDP Historical through October 2021

Our index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 01 November 2021 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit

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