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Monthly GDP rose 1.5% in October following a 0.3% increase in
September that was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point. The
increase in October reflected contributions from domestic final
sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures), net exports, and
nonfarm inventory investment. The sharp acceleration in October was
essentially accounted for by net exports, as exports of goods
surged. The level of GDP in October was 8.4% above the
third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast
of 7.6% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a partial
reversal in November of the October gain.
IHS Markit's index of Monthly
US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output
that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP
Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
Posted 01 December 2021 by Ben Herzon, Executive Director, Research advisory specialty solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
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