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Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in October following a 0.8% increase in
September that was revised lower by 0.2 percentage point. The
October increase reflected positive contributions from domestic
final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures and fixed
investment) and nonfarm inventory investment that were only
partially offset by a decline in net exports. Monthly GDP has
climbed steadily over the last few months, albeit at a slower pace
than over May and June, when the broad economy was reopening.
Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 6.0% annualized GDP
growth in the fourth quarter is a further deceleration in monthly
GDP averaged over November and December.
IHS Markit's Index
of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate
output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The
Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons:
first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly
source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the
method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for
official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined
primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and
growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to
growth of real GDP.
Posted 01 December 2020 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, IHS Markit and
