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Monthly US GDP declined 0.8% in November, reversing about
one-half of a 1.6% increase in October. The October increase was
revised higher by 0.1 percentage point. The November decline was
mainly accounted for by a sharp widening of the goods deficit.
There was also a decline in nonfarm inventory investment. Together,
these sources of drag more than offset a modest gain in domestic
final sales. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was
7.1% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in
our latest estimate of 6.7% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is an
assumed 0.1% increase in monthly GDP in December.
IHS Markit's index of Monthly
US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output
that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP
Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
Gloomier demand outlook and higher interest rates dampened commodity prices last week. Insights from our #MPI:… https://t.co/uUPkt1MWzP
May 13
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