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Monthly GDP declined 0.8% in November following a 0.6% increase
in October that was revised lower by 0.1 percentage point. The
decline in November was the first so far in the recovery and
reflected declines in personal consumption expenditures,
nonresidential fixed investment, net exports, and nonfarm inventory
investment. There were partially offsetting increases in
residential investment and the portion of monthly GDP not covered
by the monthly source data. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.0%
annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a further, 0.4%
decline (not annualized) in December.
IHS
Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of
real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product
Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for
two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same
underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of
GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar
to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency
is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly
source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is
nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
