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Monthly GDP rose 4.1% in May, reversing only a small portion of
a cumulative 15.6% decline over the prior two months, a period that
may prove to be the shortest, yet one of the deepest recessions on
record. The increase in May was more than accounted for by a sharp
increase in personal consumption expenditures. Net exports and
nonfarm inventory investment both posted negative contributions in
May. The level of GDP in May was 35.2% below the first-quarter
average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of a
35.7% annualized decline in GDP in the second quarter is a 3.3%
increase in GDP in June.
IHS Markit's index
of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate
output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The
Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons:
first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly
source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the
method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for
official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined
primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and
growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to
growth of real GDP.
