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Monthly US GDP declined 0.4% in March following a flat reading
in February. The latter was revised up from the prior estimate of a
0.1% decline. The decline in March was more than accounted for by a
sharp decline in net exports stemming from a surge in imports. This
and a few other small subtractions were partially offset by
increases in nonfarm inventory investment, personal consumption
expenditures, and nonresidential fixed investment. The level of GDP
in March was 1.0% below the first-quarter average at an annual
rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in the
second quarter are increases in GDP averaging 0.3% per month (not
annualized) during the three months of the second quarter.
Our index of Monthly
US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output
that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly US
GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP
is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
Gloomier demand outlook and higher interest rates dampened commodity prices last week. Insights from our #MPI:… https://t.co/uUPkt1MWzP
May 13
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