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Monthly GDP was essentially unchanged (0.0%) in June following
the same reading in May.
The flat reading in June mainly reflected a positive
contribution from personal consumption expenditures that was
essentially offset by declines in net exports and nonfarm inventory
investment. From March to June, monthly GDP rose at a 2.2% average
annual rate, and the level of GDP in June was actually 0.1% below
the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our
latest tracking forecast of 6.7% annualized GDP growth in the third
quarter are increases in monthly GDP over July, August, and
September averaging 0.8% (not annualized) per month.
Our index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) https://ihsmarkit.com/products/us-monthly-gdp-index.html
is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is
conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is
consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
Posted 02 August 2021 by Ben Herzon, Executive Director, Research advisory specialty solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
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