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Monthly US GDP was flat (0.0%) in January following a similar
reading in December. Underlying the flat reading in January were
strong cross-currents, including a large increase in domestic final
sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures) and declines in
nonfarm inventory investment and net exports. The level of monthly
US GDP in January was 0.7% below the fourth-quarter average at an
annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 1.0% annualized
growth of US GDP in the first quarter are increases in monthly US
GDP over February and March averaging 0.4% (not annualized) per
month.
Our index
of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate
output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The
Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons:
first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly
source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the
method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for
official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined
primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and
growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to
growth of real GDP.
Posted 04 March 2022 by Ben Herzon, Executive Director, Research advisory specialty solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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