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Monthly US GDP rose 1.4% in January. This was the first increase
since October; monthly GDP declined in November and was essentially
flat in December. The increase in January was essentially accounted
for by a large increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
Outside of PCE, increases in other domestic final sales were
roughly offset by decreases in net exports and nonfarm inventory
investment. The level of GDP in January was 3.7% above the
fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Increases of 0.2% per
month (not annualized) over February and March underlie our latest
forecast of 4.5% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter.
IHS Markit's index
of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate
output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The
Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons:
first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly
source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the
method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for
official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined
primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and
growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to
growth of real GDP.
