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Monthly US GDP declined 0.9% in February following a 1.7%
increase in January that was revised higher by 0.3 percentage
point. The decline in February came off of a level in January that
we believe was boosted by fiscal stimulus. Also, we estimate that
unseasonably harsh winter weather conditions in February subtracted
about 0.3 percentage point from growth. By component, declines in
domestic final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures) and
net exports in February were partially offset by an increase in
nonfarm inventory investment. Implicit in our latest estimate of
5.2% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter is a 1.8% increase
in monthly GDP in March.
Our index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a
monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually
consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National
Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent
with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using
much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the
calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at
MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the
monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the
underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly
frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
