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Monthly GDP was essentially flat in December following a 1.2%
decline in November that was revised lower by 0.4 percentage point.
The flat reading in December reflected declines in personal
consumption expenditures and inventory investment that were
essentially offset by increases in nonresidential fixed investment,
residential fixed investment, net exports, and the portion of
monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data. The level of
GDP in December was 1.7% below the fourth-quarter average at an
annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 3.1%
annualized growth in the first quarter is a jump in GDP in January
that reverses the weakness over the prior two months.
IHS Markit's index
of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate
output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The
Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons:
first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly
source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the
method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for
official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined
primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and
growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to
growth of real GDP.
Posted 01 February 2021 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director and
