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Monthly GDP rose 0.6% in August following a 1.5% increase in
July that was revised lower by 0.4 percentage point. The increase
in August was the smallest so far in the recovery and left the
level of GDP still about 4% shy of the February peak. The modest
increase in August reflected positive contributions from domestic
final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures) and nonfarm
inventory investment partially offset by a decline in net exports.
The level of GDP in August was 33.9% above the second-quarter
average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest estimate of 32.8%
annualized GDP growth in the third quarter is roughly no change in
monthly GDP in September. This would extend the pattern of
deceleration exhibited through August.
IHS Markit's index of Monthly
GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that
is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index
is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
