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Global Trade Insight: US Imports from China in the wake of the trade war
02 December 2019
Author: Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D., Senior Economist II, IHS Markit
Maritime & Trade
Key points:
In 2018 China was responsible for 21.3 percent of total
US imports in nominal value (539.6 billion USD). The CAGR for the
period of 2005 - 2018 for the series was equal to 6.3
percent
The volume of US imports from China in 2018 amounted to
75.2 million tonnes and increased by 6.8 percent yoy despite the
outset of a trade war
The share of maritime transport in servicing US imports
from China is showing an upward trend
The containerized US imports from China in 2018 reached
approx. 11 million TEUs. The volume is predicted to grow by 2.0
percent in 2019 and 4.6 percent in 2020
Over the long run (2005-2018) we observe a clear
decrease of Pacific-based terminals in servicing US imports from
China in favor of Atlantic based terminals (on the South Atlantic
Coast in particular)
The volume and nominal value of US imports from
China
US imports from China in 2017 reached over 70.5 million tonnes
and exceeded 75.2 million tonnes in 2018. We predict lower growth
rates in 2019 and 2020 - respectively 1.6 and 4.3 percent. The
forecasted CAGR for the period 2019 - 2030 is 4.1 percent.
The nominal value of imports reached 505 billion USD in 2017 and
increased to 539.7 billion USD in 2018. It is forecasted to reach
559.6 billion USD in 2020. The forecasted CAGR for the nominal
value of US imports from China for the period 2019 - 2030 is 3.7
percent (lower than trade volume).
The seaborne trade amounted to 343.2 billion USD in 2017 and
374.9 billion USD in 2018. We forecast it to grow by 2.8 percent in
2019 and 3.9 percent in 2020 (it is supposed to exceed 400 billion
USD in value). The share of seaborne trade in US imports from China
was 77.0 percent in 2005 and then decreased. In recent years the
share shows an upward trend increasing from 67.9 percent in 2017
and is predicted to go up to 71.5 percent in 2020.
** 2019 & 2020 Forecasted Values
This column is based on data from IHS Markit Global Trade Atlas
(GTA) and GTA Forecasting.
