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Demand for hydrogen in the US could reach as much as 41 million
mt/year by 2050, a four-fold increase compared with the present,
according to a recent National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
report.
That forecast eyes green hydrogen riding the recent wave of
enthusiasm for the technology, with the prognostication based on
assumptions related to research and development-driven reductions
in the cost of low-temperature electrolysis (LTE) and financial
incentives for LTE. Green hydrogen is produced via electrolysis
from renewable or other zero-emissions power sources.
Such a situation would, according to NREL estimates, reduce US
petroleum use by 15%, whereby 12 million mt/year of hydrogen would
fuel 18% of cars and 26% of light-duty trucks, with a further 5
million mt/year fueling 22% of the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle
fleet.
In addition, LTE could boost renewable power generation
deployment and utilization, according to the study.
"When LTE contributes to hydrogen production in our scenarios,
the capacity of renewable energy generation technologies increases
because of additional demand for [low-cost, dispatch-constrained
electricity or LCE]. In addition, utilization of renewable
electricity generators increases, because generation that exceeds
the non-LTE load would be curtailed without the LTE," it said.
The NREL reference scenario, meanwhile, has a US hydrogen market
size of 22 million mt/year. That forecast is based on the current
status of hydrogen technologies and expected hydrogen demand growth
across all sectors. It is based on US Energy Information
Administration natural gas prices and electrolysis costs and all of
the production being "grey hydrogen" via steam methane
reformation.
However, the report estimates a "serviceable" demand total of
106 million mt/year across nine applications by the middle of the
21st century, about 11 times larger than 2015 US on-purpose
hydrogen production of 10 million mt/year of hydrogen, which was
used primarily for oil refining and ammonia production.
The hydrogen demand for those two applications is expected to
grow, owing to the need to refine heavier crude oils and increased
demand for fertilizer.
According to the analysis, almost half of the potential market
would be for industrial processes, including synthetic hydrocarbon
production (14 million mt/year), metals refining (12 million
mt/year), oil refining (7 million mt/year), ammonia production (4
million mt/year) and biofuels production (9 million mt/year).
Fuel cell electric vehicles would account for over a quarter of
the serviceable consumption at 29 million mt/year.
The remainder would be used to support other energy systems in
the form of seasonal electricity storage (15 million mt/year) and
injection into the natural gas system (16 million mt/year).
All the expected demand could be produced from only 15% of the
annual technical potential of electricity from combined US onshore
and offshore wind resources, assuming other domestic uses of wind
resource continued at 2017 level, NREL said.
The report admits there could be other uses too - and therefore
further upside. NREL said analysis showed that if drivers outside
the scope of the study increased demand for non-petroleum fuel,
hydrogen injection into the gas system and seasonal electricity
storage, the market size in the LCE scenario could more than double
to 94 million mt/year.
The NREL report was commissioned as part of "H2@Scale,"
a US Department of Energy initiative led by the Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Technologies
Office.
Call to arms
The same day the report came out, 8 October - designated
"National Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Day" - a coalition of major US and
multi-national companies issued a call to arms to politicians and
other executives to embrace the use of hydrogen and the
possibilities for the US in the sector.
"The US is uniquely positioned to build a world-leading hydrogen
economy," according to the coalition. "The US has the abundant,
low-cost primary energy sources needed to produce low-carbon
hydrogen. For electrolytic hydrogen, the country has ample
renewable and low-carbon electricity resources, including wind,
solar, hydropower, and nuclear."
The companies laid out how and why they believe demand will grow
and what the US has to lose if it fails to engage the spirit of
American enterprise and can-do attitude politicians - especially
those stumping for votes - are apt to cite.
It also touts the sector's prospects for the creation of
well-paid jobs, a particularly attractive pitch after the spike in
unemployment in recent months due to the coronavirus pandemic
Hydrogen could help meet 14% of US energy demand by 2050, the
equivalent of more than 2,468 TWh or 8.4 billion MMBtu per year,
according to the roadmap, which was co-ordinated by the Fuel Cell
& Hydrogen Energy Association.
"Today, the hydrogen industry as well as the US are at a
crossroads as the country's energy future is determined," the
coalition said. "Companies are grappling with decarbonization,
preservation of natural resources, aging infrastructure, energy
storage, an evolving regulatory landscape and new customer demands.
The resiliency and reliability of our energy system are growing
concerns.
"A vibrant hydrogen industry would maintain US energy leadership
and security, create jobs, significantly reduce carbon emissions
and support economic growth," it said. "The time to boost support
for hydrogen is now. Decisions and investments made now will have
long-term impact. Moreover, many energy infrastructure decisions
take a long time to implement.
"Investment is needed to lay the groundwork for hydrogen
solutions. Capital is required to build foundational hydrogen
infrastructure and companies need the right incentives to invest in
low-carbon hydrogen solutions. Regulatory barriers and appropriate
codes and standards need to be addressed to enable large-scale
commercialization and a robust, reliable supply chain," according
to the coalition.
By 2030, the hydrogen economy in the US could generate an
estimated $140 billion/year in revenue and support 700,000 total
jobs across the hydrogen value chain, it said, citing US Department
of Energy data. By 2050, it could drive growth by generating about
$750 billion/year in revenue and a cumulative 3.4 million jobs, it
added.
The coalition even foresees hydrogen enabling a "competitive
nuclear industry," it said, at a time when plants have been
shutting in numbers unprecedented since the first commercial power
reactors were built - largely as a result of low electricity
prices.
Hydrogen would also enable smoother integration of low-carbon
power resources, according to the study. "Grid-connected
electrolyzers that produce hydrogen could provide a significant
source of flexibility for intermittent renewables, providing
long-duration storage solutions that are complementary to
short-duration battery solutions," it said, adding "they can
provide additional load for low-carbon power sources like renewable
and nuclear power."
Posted 16 November 2020 by Keiron Greenhalgh, Editor, Energy and Natural Resources Group, IHS Markit