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On 31 March 2019, Ukraine will hold the first round of its
presidential election, with 39 candidates running for the top
office.
With up to 15% of the 35.5 million voters effectively
disenfranchised, the election is likely to favor candidates with
strong nationalist platform. Voters in Crimea and in parts of
Donetsk and Luhansk regions can only vote if they pre-register for
voting in government-controlled areas and physically travel to the
voting station on the election day. Ukrainian citizens resident in
Russia, estimated at up to 3 million, would not be able to vote at
Ukrainian diplomatic missions in the country, as no polling
stations were set up for security reasons. Those unwilling or
unable to travel to Ukraine will effectively be excluded from
voting.
As top candidates are polling significantly under 30%, a second
round is almost certain, with three candidates best positioned to
proceed to the second round on 21 April. Based on current polling,
the following candidates hold highest chances to become one of the
two candidates in the second round: comedian, TV personality and
political newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskyi, former prime minister Yulia
Tymoshenko, and incumbent President Petro Poroshenko (see chart).
Such a configuration for the second round is in line with IHS
Markit's 2018 forecast.
Both Zelenskyi and Tymoshenko are likely to benefit from protest
voting against the current administration. However, Zelenskyi, a
political newcomer, is likely to suffer on voting day from the
vagueness of his political platform and because his support base is
largely drawn from the younger and Russian-speaking demographics,
which typically have a low turnout. Tymoshenko, a veteran of
Ukrainian politics since the 1990s, ran unsuccessfully for the
presidency in 2010 and 2014. She has a high negative rating due to
her past history as prime minister and for her recent pledges to
institute another constitutional reform and asset redistribution in
Ukraine.
Poroshenko's results in the first round will likely be dampened
by slow progress of reforms and the anti-corruption drive.
Poroshenko, who has been in power since June 2014, struggled in
polls due to a combination of a slower pace in reform
implementation and fighting corruption than was anticipated.
Poroshenko built his campaign around the slogan "Army. Language.
Faith", which was designed to mobilize nationalist voters. This
helped him to improve his polling since 2018, but Poroshenko's
passage to the second round is not guaranteed. If he is eliminated
from the race in the first round, he would continue as president
until the new leader's inauguration on 3 June.
The uncertainty around the election outcome increases the
likelihood of conflicting policy announcements by Poroshenko and
his challengers in the three-month outlook. Last-minute
developments, both domestic, such as corruption allegations or
large-scale protests, have the potential to affect the outcome on
voting day. This will likely trigger policy announcements, often
mutually exclusive, by both the current administration and by
Poroshenko's key competitors, which would further increase policy
instability in Ukraine in the three-months outlook.
Indicators of changing risk environment
Indicators of increasing risk
Allegations of corruption or financial irregularities against
major candidates.
Large-scale and potentially violent protests against Poroshenko
and other candidates.
Indicators of decreasing risk
Low turnout would likely benefit the incumbent, thus decreasing
the likelihood of major policy changes.
One of the candidates gaining an unexpected but clear majority
in the first round.
Statements by Poroshenko of willingness to accept the election
outcome.
