Since late August, the negative-yielding debt stock fell USD5 trillion to USD12 trillion with France’s 10 year OAT… https://t.co/7qMzCHq7Uk
Uganda opposition co-operation agreement
Leading Ugandan opposition figures Kizza Besigye (the second-place finisher in the last four presidential elections) and musician-turned-politician Robert Kyagulanyi (popularly known by his stage name "Bobi Wine") announced on 8 May an agreement to co-operate with the eventual aim of ousting President Yoweri Museveni from power. Ugandan media reported that the agreement included planning joint rallies and resistance when security forces confront them. A special session of Uganda's National Security Council was held on 9 May following the announcement.
Both Besigye and Kyagulanyi have large bases of popular support, especially in cities, and consequently this agreement increases the likelihood of anti-government urban protests causing major traffic and business disruption for up to a day at a time. Turnout will be especially high when both politicians are physically present. Security forces are likely to attempt to disperse such gatherings (which are unlikely to receive official permission) using tear gas and live fire, resulting in localized rioting in the immediate vicinity (especially if protesters are killed), with looting (targeting retail assets), and arson and vandalism (particularly targeting nearby vehicles and government and ruling party-associated assets). However, such rioting is likely to remain limited to the immediate vicinity of the gatherings, and security forces are unlikely to lose control of entire neighborhoods or towns.
The political groupings backing Besigye and Kyagulanyi have had a difficult relationship since the latter's entrance into politics in 2017, and consequently the duration of this agreement will indicate the likelihood of a joint opposition candidate in the 2021 presidential election. Both politicians have indicated an intention to run, and local media reported that the recent agreement did not select a unity presidential candidate. Previous joint opposition candidacies have broken down ahead of elections.
Towards 2021, a sustained opposition alliance behind either Besigye or Kyagulanyi as a joint opposition candidate, and defections of politicians from the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) to back this alliance, would indicate an increasing probability of the opposition seriously contesting President Museveni's (highly likely) bid for re-election.
Follow our ongoing global elections coverage and access our continually updated Global Election database.
- Italy steelworks nationalization
- Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging Market issuers active despite recent bond-market yield reversal
- Holiday retail sales outlook 2019
- Weekly Pricing Pulse: Trade deal hopes unfulfilled
- Djibouti opposition protests
- Hercules plan will help Greek banks to reduce their high NPL exposures
- Capital Markets Weekly: China and Brazil achieve long-dated debt successes
- RCEP deal creates giant new FTA in Asia Pacific as India stands aside
Dispute over Taranto steelworks increases likelihood of nationalization but does not represent shift in Italy's ind… https://t.co/SVg21epig3
Assuming consumers remain even moderately confident over the next few months, holiday sales are on track for an abo… https://t.co/mDQ1anx4Xi