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Tunisia's president, Kais Saied, activated article 80 of the
Constitution on 25 July, suspending the activities of parliament
and parliamentary immunity, and dismissing Prime Minister Hichem
Mechichi. The move came during mass protests across Tunisia over
the weekend, in response to consistent political deadlock, economic
stagnation, and widely perceived mismanagement of the coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by the government-led by Mechici.
There had been frequent large-scale protests since early 2021,
which had intensified over the last three months.
President Saied is likely to attempt to exploit his
interim authorities and seek to more permanently expand his powers
beyond those assigned to the presidency by the constitution -
namely over foreign policy and the military.
Following the suspension of parliament, Saied stated that he
would govern with a new prime minister - yet to be appointed - and
that parliament would remain suspended for at least 30 days. In
response to endemic failings in Tunisia's COVID-19 response, Saied
on 21 July had ordered the military to take over direct
coordination of the pandemic response, and it is highly likely that
Saied will seek to develop a more prominent role for the military
in directing the Tunisian political system. His decision to suspend
the Parliament also came after a meeting with senior military and
security officers, indicating that the President had received the
support of the security apparatus beforehand.
Such a campaign would indicate that political Islamist
parties, including Ennahda - the party supportive of Hichem
Mechichi and Parliamentary Speaker Rachid Ghannouchi
-are likely to be targeted in the weeks
ahead.
The Tunisian cabinet has been characterized by paralysis since
early 2021, mainly due to increasing antagonism between the
presidency and the prime minister's office and disagreement over
the division of powers, and accusations of cabinet-level
corruption.
Islamist and more leftist parties are likely to continue
opposing Saied's decision and call for protests, especially if the
president fails to appoint a new PM or call for fresh
elections.
Immediately following Saied's televised announcement, Rachid
Ghannouchi (who, besides being speaker of parliament, is a
co-founder of the Ennahda party) claimed that Saied's actions
amounted to a coup against Tunisian democracy; this was supported
by the Karama and Heart of Tunisia parties. Ennahda, however,
released a statement on 27 July calling for dialogue to resolve the
political crisis and for fresh general elections, urging its
supporters not to organize demonstrations outside the parliament
building. This move was likely intended to avoid the risk of
violent confrontation between presidential supporters or security
forces that would risk escalating into more sustained violence,
with a high likelihood of fatalities and societal polarization,
which would further erode popular support for Ennahda. Should
President Saied fail to appoint a new interim PM or not provide a
clear roadmap that includes fresh elections, Ennahda is likely to
call for mass protests and mobilize its support base, with a high
probability of sustained violent altercations between supporters of
both camps. In the lead-up to the suspension of parliament,
protesters stormed and vandalized party offices, in particular
those of Ennahda, directing anger towards a party they largely see
as part of the current political system's dysfunction and a prime
minister considered incapable of dealing with the economic and
health crisis.
The suspension of parliament and reconfiguration of
governmental decision-making will further delay talks with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Tunisian government started negotiations with the IMF on 21
May 2021, aiming to secure a new USD4-billion financial assistance
package over three years to assist in coping with growing economic
stress, exacerbated by the pandemic. The new package will depend on
Tunisia's willingness and ability to implement those reforms.
However, should Saied seek to establish a more directly executive
system of governance with the backing of military support, the
likelihood of an arrangement being agreed with the IMF within the
year would decrease.
Posted 29 July 2021 by Jack A. Kennedy, Head of Desk and Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit and
Ludovico Carlino, Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit
