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On 10 January Tunisia's parliament rejected on 10 January a
confidence vote on the coalition government of independent
lawmakers proposed by Prime Minister-designate Habib Jemli. Jemli
was appointed by President Kais Saied on 15 November 2019 with the
support of the Islamist party Ennahda.
Populist party Qalb Tounes's rejection of Jemli's proposed
government was key to his attempt failing. The party is the second
largest in parliament after Ennahda following the November 2019
legislative elections. No party has a working majority.
According to the Tunisian constitution, President Kais Saied now
has 10 days to appoint a new Prime Minister, who must be approved
by parliament within a month. Failing that, Saied will be forced to
dissolve the National Assembly and call for a new election.
Significance
Jemli's failure to win the confidence vote in parliament means
that a difficult coalition-building process has to be restarted by
Saied and a newly designated PM, who will likely encounter the same
difficulties as their predecessor in putting together a cabinet
agreed upon by political parties with opposing political views.
Even if a new cabinet eventually manages to obtain parliamentary
approval, its majority is likely to be so small that a new
government would be short-lived, increasing the likelihood of a
fresh election in the six-month outlook.
The risk of new elections is compounded by the fact that Tunisia
needs to secure another EUR3.5 billion loan from the International
Monetary Fund to cover the 2020 budget. This loan is likely to be
conditional on a new set of austerity measures that the next
government would have to pass, potentially triggering popular
discontent and further weakening its position.
According to local media, names now under consideration to try
to form a government are not yet available. Saied's ability to
identify and appoint an independent candidate as next PM accepted
by the major political parties for their political neutrality would
be the key indicator to watch to determine whether the new proposed
cabinet will have a significant enough margin to obtain
parliamentary endorsement.
Posted 24 January 2020 by Ludovico Carlino, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa
