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Trade downturn pushes global growth to two-year low

10 October 2018 Chris Williamson

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's monthly PMI overview presentation. For the full report please click on the link at the bottom of the article.

Global PMI slides to two-year low amid export-led slowdown

Global economic growth moderated to a two-year low in September in a broad-based slowdown, according to the latest PMI surveys. The headline JPMorgan Global Composite PMI, compiled by IHS Markit, fell for a third successive month in September, down from 53.4 in August to 52.8, its lowest since September 2016. The latest reading is indicative of annual global GDP growth slipping below 2.5% (at market exchange rates). Business confidence about the year ahead likewise fell to the gloomiest for two years, suggesting growth may weaken further in coming months.

Slower growth was recorded across both manufacturing and services, the former down to a two-year low while the latter showed the joint-slowest rise for two years. A key area of weakness remained global exports, which fell for the first time in over two years in September, representing a marked turnaround in worldwide trade since the surging growth seen at the start of the year.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit
Tel: +44 207 260 2329

© 2018, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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