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2021 will be a critical year of transition for the Latin
American oil industry as the region grapples with the tumultuous
events of 2020. IHS Markit estimates that production through 2021
will roughly average 70% of total production capacity. This
reflects the region's simultaneously tightening supply of heavy
sour crude oil and increasing supply of light and medium grades in
Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, shifting purchases of crude from the
US to Asia and Europe. The regional crude slate shift has impacted
the light-heavy crude differential, which has tightened
significantly in 2020, and will remain tight in 2021. Meanwhile,
many Latin governments and NOCs have taken further steps on energy
transition, increasingly shifting to biomass and renewable
technologies.
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