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Using vessel port callings data to gain early insight into how
global trade is affected by COVID-19.
Collectively, the EU is the largest exporter of fish products
worldwide and the importance of the fishing industry to these
countries is vital*. In fact, despite the fact the UK fishing
industry only contributes to 0.1% of the country's economy**, it
played a massive role in the Brexit debates with disagreement about
quotas and exclusive fishing zones being high on the agenda. Within
the EU the top importing countries include France, Italy and Spain
whereas the top exporters include the Netherlands, Sweden and
Denmark. The UK is the sixth largest exporter in the EU,
exporting two thirds of the fish it catches.
As COVID-19 continues to have an impact and lockdown continues
throughout the world, the UK fishing industry appears to be
struggling. The Marine Management Organisation announced on the
20th April that they will launch a £10 million Fisheries Response
Fund to help the fishing businesses struggling due to the impact of
COVID-19***. Using our Global Trade Atlas a decrease in UK exports
of fish in both January and February was identified. UK
exports of HS03 - Fish and Crustaceans, Molluscs and Other Aquatic
Invertebrates were down 22% in January vs December 2019 and a
further 16% in February 2020 vs January 2020 (Figure
1). Comparing February 2020 to February 2019
showed a year-on-year decrease of 8.35% with a huge 74% decrease in
exports to China.
Figure 1: UK Exports of HS03 (Fish and Crustaceans, Molluscs and
Other Invertebrates) Source: IHS Markit Global Trade
Atlas
Although the trade data shows clear decreases in export activity
through to February 2020, unfortunately there can often be a time
lag in receiving trade data from customs authorities meaning it is
hard to determine in advance when a recovery in trade may occur.
Given the possible relationship between the number of fishing
vessels returning to port and the amount of fish available for
export, it is possible to supplement the trade data and derive
early insights into the state of the fishing industry using port
callings data.
IHS Markit Maritime & Trade monitors the real-time movements
of high-seas fishing vessels with an IMO number. Analysis of the
number of fishing vessels arriving into the UK shows that in 2019
the levels remained largely consistent throughout January to March
(Figure 2). Meanwhile a comparison to January-March 2020,
when the impact of COVID-19 on the UK was increasing, shows a
decrease throughout February to March (Figure 2). This
suggests the lockdown may be influencing the ability of vessels to
operate normally, hence leading to lower volumes of fish catches
and the observed decreases in trade (Figure 1).
Figure 2: Number of fishing vessels arriving into the UK from
January to April in 2019 and January to April 2020. Source: IHS Markit Maritime Data
Given that China was the country first affected by COVID-19,
their recovery began sooner relative to other countries. China is
the largest exporter of fish globally exporting over 2.9 million
tonnes in 2019. As a country who is effectively a few months ahead
of the UK in their response to COVID-19, looking at their trade
data along with the movement patterns of fishing vessels could
provide an indication of how the fishing industry may behave in the
UK in the coming months. China trade data saw large
decreases in January and February, to levels lower than the
five-year average, followed by a slight improvement in March as the
situation improved (Figure 3). This
mirrors the trend in the number of port calls. From this we can
infer that if the number of port calls increase, then the exports
may also see an increase in coming months. Interestingly the number
of port calls in 2020 was much higher than in 2019 but the export
trade is not a substantial volume higher.
Figure 3: China's exports of HS03 (Fish and Crustaceans) Source:
IHS Markit Global Trade Atlas.
NB January and February 2020 data supplied as aggregate and then
normalised.
Hence, insight can be drawn from the number of vessels calling
into the UK. The number of fishing vessels arriving into the UK is
higher in January 2020 than January 2019, suggesting we would be
expecting year-on-year growth in the number of vessel callings.
However, the number of vessels arriving in the UK has decreased
month-on-month with March showing similar numbers of callings in
2019 to 2020. In April the number of callings in 2020 fell
significantly to only 1,245 below that of the same period in
2019.
Figure 5: Number of fishing vessels arriving into the UK in
2019. Source: IHS Markit Maritime Data
This rapid decrease in the number of callings indicates the UK
fishing industry could be in for more bad news with possibly even
lower exports for April. Monitoring the number of vessels
arriving into the UK on an ongoing basis could be a valuable tool
for assessing when the tides may be turning for the UK fishing
industry.
It is possible that this type of analysis using port callings
data could be useful in assessing trade in other sectors too. IHS Markit Commodities at Sea
uses real-time tracking of dry bulk vessels and tankers to gain
valuable insight into how the trade of commodities such as crude
oil, iron ore and coal are responding to COVID-19. Similar
methodology may have the potential to be applied to other vessel
types or industries.
