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The golden-age of trackers: One third of global ground-mounted PV installations will use trackers from 2019 to 2023
05 December 2019Camron Barati
2018 was a record year for global shipments of single-axis solar
photovoltaic (PV) trackers as they increased by over 40 percent,
surpassing 20 gigawatts-dc (GW) globally for the first time. While
the United States continued to be the largest individual market for
single-axis trackers last year, shipments also increased in Mexico,
Australia, Egypt, Spain, and other large utility-scale markets.
The Americas was the largest regional market, accounting for
more than half of global PV tracker demand. However, the growth
rate was strongest in the Middle East and North Africa. PV trackers
accounted for over 25 percent of global ground-mount shipments for
the first time in 2018.
The top-ten suppliers continued to benefit from greater adoption
of PV tracker technology, and all of them achieved higher
year-over-year shipment volumes in 2018. NEXTracker continued to
lead the market, for the fourth year in a row, accounting for 29
percent of global PV tracker shipments. As was the case last year,
Array Technologies was the second largest supplier in the market,
followed by PV Hardware, Arctech Solar, and Soltec.
Figure 1: Global PV tracker supplier market rankings -
2018
The Americas region will remain key market for PV
trackers but EMEA will be highest growth market
Following a record year of shipments for PV tracking
systems globally in 2018, IHS Markit forecasts more than 150 GWdc
of PV tracking systems will be deployed from 2019 to 2023,
accounting for approximately one third of ground-mounted PV
installations during the period according to its recent
Global PV Tracker Market Report - 2019 (subscription required
to access the report). The Americas will remain the largest region
for PV tracker demand, accounting for more than 40% of the global
tracker market over the next five years. Key markets in this region
will include the United States, projected to be the largest
individual market for PV trackers globally during forecast period,
along with Mexico due to a near-term surge in utility-scale PV
deployments after recent capacity auction awards.
While the Americas may be the largest regional market for
trackers, growth in demand will be strongest across Europe, the
Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), led by surging demand for
utility-scale PV in markets such as Spain, the United Arab
Emirates, Saudi Arabi, and Egypt. The EMEA region has historically
been dominated by Spanish suppliers such as PV Hardware and Soltec,
which collectively accounted for over 50% of PV tracker shipments
to the region in 2018. Competition in the region is expected to
increase significantly in the coming years due to the persistence
of other European suppliers such as Convert Italia, Ideematec, and
NCLAVE (acquired by Trina Solar) in addition to the entrance of US
players such as NEXTracker and Array Technologies.
Though Asia will be the largest regional market for PV
installations during the forecast period, demand for PV trackers
will be weaker than other regions relative to the size and scale of
the market, primarily due to stronger price competition with
fixed-tilt systems and high competition for suitable land. Even so,
Australia, China, and India are projected to be among the top ten
largest markets for PV trackers from 2019 to 2023, collectively
representing a market opportunity of more than 30 GW during the
period. Global PV tracker market leader NEXTracker and leading
Chinese supplier Arctech Solar have historically led the pack in
Asia, collectively accounting for approximately 60% of PV tracker
shipments to the region in 2018.
Global leaders NEXTracker and Array Technologies are poised to
continue capturing market share in emerging markets outside of
their home markets in the Americas, though competition from other
international players such as Soltec, Arctech Solar, PV Hardware,
and Convert Italia will serve as challengers to further
expansion.
Figure 2: Global PV tracker market by region 2019 to 2023
(MWdc)
The increasing adoption of bifacial modules will
trigger additional demand for PV trackers in the next five
years
Over the next five years, IHS Markit sees the primary drivers of
tracker adoption including: (1) incremental cost reductions driven
by continued product innovation, (2) growing demand for
utility-scale PV in emerging markets, (3) and the increased
adoption of bifacial modules that will lead to higher efficiencies
and lower costs for trackers and installation.
Greater efficiency gains and higher wattage for PV modules have
been a primary driver of $/Wdc cost reductions for PV mounting and
tracking products in recent years. However, surging demand for
bifacial modules will help further incentivize the usage of solar
trackers globally. Compared to standard mono facial modules,
bifacial modules are generally expected to generate 5-20% more
energy under optimal albedo conditions, with even greater gains
reported for some case studies utilizing PV trackers. The cost
delta between bifacial and mono facial modules has narrowed rapidly
in recent years and by 2020/2021 IHS Markit forecasts the price gap
will become relatively insignificant compared to the efficiency
gains. IHS Markit will be publishing a detailed report on bifacial
technology in November that will include detailed forecast, drivers
and challenges, as well as price and cost trends of bifacial
technology in the next years.
Diverse field studies have clearly demonstrated the potential
performance gains and lower LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity) of
installations using single-axis trackers together with bifacial and
this is a value proposition being used now for both module
producers as well as tracker manufacturers. Manufacturers claim
that when installed together with a tracker, the rear side of a
bifacial module could generate up to 30% additional output. There
are still some uncertainties regarding the exact level of
extra-gain associated to the combination of bifacial modules with
trackers depending on project type, location and how to model such
additional output. The industry is, in fact, still waiting for the
highly anticipated publication of IEC standards for bifaciality
factor that could be published before the end of 2019 and set some
baseline that facilitates modeling and financing of utility-scale
projects using this technology.
According to IHS Markit, the best markets for bifacial PV
systems will be those with vast areas of highly reflective terrain,
such as arid dessert regions and strong demand for ground-mounted
utility-scale PV. While China may be the largest market initially,
the United States is rapidly becoming a key market for bifacial
products, in addition to growing demand across Latin America, the
Middle East, and North Africa.
