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Tesla Model S vs. Porsche Taycan: The Jury is Still Out

09 February 2022 Tom Libby

While all full size luxury sedans supposedly compete with each other, the Tesla Model S and Porsche Taycan face off against each other to a greater degree, given that they are the only two electric vehicles in this segment with historical data (the Mercedes-Benz EQS and Lucid Air just launched this past fall and therefore have little data with which to analyze their performances).

A review of the migration patterns of these two full size luxury electric vehicles, as well as their inventory levels and registration volumes, suggests there is substantial marketplace interaction between them.

As shown on the table below, there are three time periods within the past twenty two months when Taycan registrations jumped month over month and, simultaneously, Model S migrations to the Taycan also rose. In April 2020, Taycan registrations jumped 268% to 153, and at the same time the percent of Model S households that migrated to a Taycan rose from .2% to 3.3%, an increase of more than 1,000%.

The same type of dynamic occurred four months later in August 2020, when Taycan registrations climbed 38% month-over-month to 615, and Model S migration to Taycan simultaneously more than doubled (as a percent of total Model S migrations) to 11%.

The third and last of these events, which occurred in August 2021, was the most pronounced of the three. Taycan registrations climbed 44% to 1, 072, and Model S migrations to Taycan, as a percent of Total Model S migrations, more than doubled to 17.3%. This metric actually climbed in September to 21.4%, the highest monthly tally of Model S migrations to Taycan in this 22 month window.

During this third event, note that heightened migration from Model S to Taycan had a substantial impact on Model S fuel type/brand loyalty. In other words, during this series of events last August and September, the percent of Model S households acquiring another EV that returned to Tesla dropped to 22 month lows of 75% and 67.5%, respectively.

Lastly, it is important to bear in mind that these heighted movements from Model S to Taycan occurred at times when Model S registrations were substantially below monthly norms, suggesting limited supplies. With this in mind, it seems to be too early to determine which of these models has the greater appeal to retail consumers. Only when both models' inventories have climbed back to "normal" levels will we be able to see how the market dynamics net out between them.

Posted 09 February 2022 by Tom Libby, Associate Director Loyalty Solutions and Industry Analysis, Automotive, IHS Markit

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