Swedish passenger car market declined in April 2019

03 May 2019 Ian Fletcher

[Excerpt]

The Swedish passenger car market has seen demand retreat further during April. According to data published by trade association BIL Sweden, registrations declined by 11.6% y/y to 30,253 units in April. Overall, the Swedish passenger car market has now slipped by 14.4% y/y to 104,133 units in the year to date (YTD). Meanwhile, registrations of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) of less than 3.5 tonnes declined again, by 15.4% y/y to 4,061 units in April, leading to a decline in the YTD of 20.6% y/y to 14,115 units. However, sales of heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) with a GVW of more than 16 tonnes improved by 11.6% y/y to 644 units in April, helping it further into positive growth territory in the YTD with a gain of 8.1% y/y to 2,158 units.

Significance: After several years of gains, the Swedish light-vehicle market shifted in the middle of last year following the end of a push of non-WLTP compliant vehicles and the introduction of a new CO2-based bonus-malus system. BIL Sweden's CEO, Mattias Bergman, has said previously that around 64% of vehicles sold last year were in the first half before its introduction. However, the introduction of the bonus-malus scheme is having a positive impact on the market, as it boosts the market for plug-in vehicles and notably fully electric vehicles (EVs). The market share of such vehicles reached 4.5% during last month, versus 1.1% during April 2018. EVs saw a particularly large increase due to new models coinciding with this support. This has led the trade association to lift its forecast for such vehicles to a share of 24% of the market during 2020 and 30% during 2021, compared with the previous forecast of 19% and 25% respectively. It also expected the share to reach around 13% this year. As for the wider market, IHS Markit anticipates that passenger car registrations will fall approximately 5% y/y to 336,000 units in 2019, with further declines to come as the market corrects after a period of extended highs. We also see the LCV category falling back over the next few years, beginning in 2019 with a fall of 12.6% to 49,800 units.