Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
Sustained recovery in global trade – Latest Observations in the Top Ten Economies
26 May 2021Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.
Main Observations
Recovery in trade is strong and sustained with year-on-year
growth both in exports and in imports for top ten economies
Data for March 2021 shows an increase in exports for all top
ten states that have already reported the data; exports grew
year-on-year from 12.7% for the U.S. up to 33.2% for the UK; only
three countries reported data for April 2021 - the year-on-year
increase is equal to 31.7% for China, 41.2% for South Korea and
50.5% for Brazil; American and British exports have grown
year-on-year for the first time in a year or more; the recovery in
exports seems to be already sustained for Brazil and Canada
(consistent growth 3rd month in a row)
In March 2021, imports were growing year-on-year for all top
ten economies that have already reported data with year-on-year
increases varying from +5.1% for Japan up to +37.6% for China; for
April, all reporters are showing significant year-on-year
increases: South Korea +33.9%, Brazil +41.1%, and China +42.7%
Data for imports are by now indicating a sustained recovery
which is indicative of growing consumer confidence and increasing
internal demand strengthening the likelihood for sustained
recovery
The adjusted PMI NExO readouts for the global manufacturing
industry in April 2021 were above the benchmark value of 50.0
points (54.67), which represents an increase of +1.20 points on
March readout, and the 3rd month of continuous growth. The readouts
for services are for the first time above of 50.0 points benchmark
since July 2019 and equal to 50.42
Changes in Trade of the Top Ten Economies
In January 2021, most top ten economies reported year-on-year
growth in the value of exports varying from +3.5% for Brazil to
80.5% for China; the U.S. (-1.1%), EU (-1.6%), Russia (-16.0%), and
the UK (-25.8%) reported a year-on-year decline
In February 2021, most top ten states reported a year-on-year
growth in the value of exports varying from 0.1% for Japan to
+40.1% for China; with declines reported at this stage by the UK
(-0.3% year-on-year), Russia (-1.3%), and the U.S. (-6.1%)
Data for March 2021 shows an increase in exports for all top
ten states that have already reported the data; exports grew
year-on-year from 12.7% for the U.S. up to 33.2% for the UK; only
three countries reported data for April 2021 - the year-on-year
increase is equal to 31.7% for China, 41.2% for South Korea and
50.5% for Brazil
Chinese exports grew for the 11th month in a row. It is the 6th
month in a row for South Korea and the 4th one for Japan, which
indicates that the recovery in East Asia is broad and is leading
the global recovery; the establishment of the RCEP in 2021 could
strengthen the role of the region in the global trade (four
countries have already ratified the RCEP Agreement - Thailand,
China, Japan & Singapore)
American and British exports have grown year-on-year for the
first time in a year or more; the recovery in exports seems to be
already sustained for Brazil and Canada (consistent growth 3rd
month in a row)
In contrast to exports, in all top ten economies imports
contracted year-on-year in 2020; the decline varied from -0.4% for
China to -23.3% in India; at the same time for most of the states,
the contraction in imports was deeper than the contraction in
exports
In January 2021, imports were growing year-on-year in India
(+1.9%), South Korea (+3.6%), the U.S. (+4.3%), Russia (+6.0%), and
China (+32.6%) and declined in the remaining top ten economies with
the largest declines reported year-on-year for Brazil (-10.7%) and
the UK (-13.6%)
In February 2021, imports were growing year-on-year in all
countries apart from the UK (-8.7%), with the largest gains in
South Korea (+14.1%), Russia (+16.02%), and Japan (+16.5%)
In March 2021, imports were growing year-on-year for all top
ten economies that have already reported data with yoy increases
varying from +5.1% for Japan up to +37.6% for China; for April, all
reporters are showing significant year-on-year increases South
Korea +33.9%, Brazil +41.1%, and China +42.7%
Data for imports are by now indicating a sustained recovery
which is indicative of growing consumer confidence and increasing
internal demand strengthening the likelihood for sustained
recovery
Prospects for the Forthcoming Months
The reaction in trade in 2020 was consistent with the
escalating global COVID-19 pandemic and steps taken by individual
countries/territories in controlling or mitigating it. The
situation in 2021 is likely to be similar with the development
dependent on the success of mass vaccination programs and the
severity of the third and potentially next waves. It is the key
differentiator between the four different scenarios of the World
Bank's Global Economic Outlook from January 2021 and an element
embedded in the baseline macroeconomic scenario of IHS Markit
The overall impact of COVID-19 on global trade and the global
economy will depend on the duration, severity, and spatial
distribution of the pandemic and associated severity of containment
efforts taken by individual states
The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally
by 23 May 2021 reached 166.7 million and 3.45 million deaths
The cumulative number of cases is the largest in Asia (48.9
million), Europe (46.7 million), North America (38.6 million), and
South America (27.6 million); Asia become a global leader in
reported cases due to the rapid spread of the pandemic in India
within a month overtaking Europe and North America
Looking from the individual country perspective, the cumulative
number of cases is the highest in the U.S. (33.1 million), India
(26.5 million), Brazil (16.0 million), followed by France (6.0
million), Turkey (5.2 million), Russia (4.9 million), the UK (4.5
million), and Italy (4.2 million).
In April-May 2021, COVID-19 was spreading the fastest in India
(14.5 million cases), Brazil (3.3 million cases), the USA (2.7
million cases), and Turkey (1.9 million cases). The top ten
countries affected included France, Argentina, Iran, Columbia,
Germany, Italy, and Poland; the highest death toll in April - May
2021, in turn, was observed in India, Brazil, the U.S., Columbia,
and Poland
The two-week moving averages of global new cases and deaths
started falling with the vicious variants spreading fast in Brazil
and India; the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing
The reported number of vaccinations globally reached 1.67
billion, with 391 million people fully vaccinated, which is
equivalent to 5.0% of the global population only
The adjusted PMI new exports orders (PMI NExO) readouts for the
global manufacturing industry in April 2021 were above the
benchmark value of 50.0 points (54.67, a rise of +1.20 point on the
March 2021 readout, and the 3rd month of continuous growth) for
seven out of the top ten economies (apart from Canada, the EU &
South Korea). The only country to report the PMI NExO below the
benchmark value of 50.0 is Russia (49.48); the highest readouts for
April are reported for the European Union (61.79), the U.S.
(56.16), India (54.93) and South Korea (54.05)
Both PMI NExO for global manufacturing and global services show
a rapid decline and quick V-shape recovery; the readouts for
services are for the first time above of 50.0 points benchmark
since July 2019 and equal to 50.42
The most recent real GDP growth forecasts from IHS Markit were
published on 18 May 2021 and are based on the baseline scenario of
the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy
We now estimate the contraction of global GDP by 3.6% in 2020,
varying between -4.6% for advanced, -1.7% for emerging, and -5.5%
for developing economies
We foresee a global recovery in 2021 with year-on-year real GDP
growth rates predicted to reach 5.7% (4.5% in 2022) - adjusted
upwards for 2021 by 0.4% compared to April's release. The growth
rates are predicted to vary between 5.3% (4.1% in 2022) for
advanced, 6.3% (5.2%) for emerging, and 5.0% (4.7%) for developing
states
From a quarterly perspective, both Q3 (-1.5%) and Q4 2020
(-0.4%) proved to bring a continuing global recession in 2020. We
predict a global recovery to have taken place already in the Q1 of
2021 (+3.6%), driven mostly by emerging states with the stronger
hike in the current Q2 of 2021 (+10.5%). The predicted growth in Q3
& Q4 2021 is equal to 4.9%
Recovery in China started in Q2 of 2020 following the COVID-19
related contraction in the first quarter. Apart from China
(+18.7%), four other economies out of the top ten group are now
estimated to have grown in real terms in the first quarter of 2021.
These are Brazil (+0.4%), Canada (+0.5%), South Korea (+1.7%), and
the U.S. (+0.4%). The UK economy is estimated to have contracted
year-on-year in Q1 2021 by 6.1%. The major recovery in all the
states is predicted continually for Q2, with the strongest growth
predicted for the UK (+21.2%), India (+18.4%), Canada (+13.7%), the
U.S. (+12.7%), and the EU (+12.5%)
This column is based on data from IHS Markit Maritime
& Trade Global Trade Atlas (GTA) & GTA
Forecasting.
For more details about Global Trade Atlas Forecasting
please visit the product page
The full version of this article is available on the
Connect platform for IHS Markit clients with a subscription to
GTA/GTA Forecasting
Please note that China (mainland) reported an aggregated value
of trade for January-February 2020 and 2021 - for the year 2020 the
data in the GTA database were equally split
between the two months, while for 2021 the data were split
unequally.
Please note that Brazil has revised data for 2020 affecting the
reported growth rates (please be careful not to compare the current
GTM Report with prior editions due to significant changes)
{"items" : [
{"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fsustained-recovery-in-global-trade.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fsustained-recovery-in-global-trade.html&text=Sustained+recovery+in+global+trade+%e2%80%93+Latest+Observations+in+the+Top+Ten+Economies+%7c+IHS+Markit+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fsustained-recovery-in-global-trade.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=Sustained recovery in global trade – Latest Observations in the Top Ten Economies | IHS Markit &body=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fsustained-recovery-in-global-trade.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=Sustained+recovery+in+global+trade+%e2%80%93+Latest+Observations+in+the+Top+Ten+Economies+%7c+IHS+Markit+ http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fsustained-recovery-in-global-trade.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"}
]}