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Since the back end of 2020 there have been reports of disruption
within the supply chain of semiconductors to the automotive sector.
Pressure built up as the automotive industry recovered from the
widespread lockdowns experienced during the first half of 2020 and
that recovery cycle clashed with increasing demand from the wider
consumer electronics sector, which was itself recovering strongly
and late in the year, building stocks for the holiday season.
As a result of these pressures, light vehicle manufacturers are
finding increased disruption to the supply of systems using
semiconductors in the first quarter. At this stage, with varying
levels of visibility across the supply chain, the biggest volume
disruption is noted in Mainland China where, based on available
information, the risk could be 250,000 units in the first quarter.
Additionally, in Europe, where less immediate detail is available,
losses could total 100,000 units for this quarter. Production
levels in North America, Japan and India are also expected to be
negatively affected during the quarter. In other regions the risk
is evident but it is less significant at this stage.
The situation is highly fluid. Currently there are varying
estimates as to the length of the semiconductor shortage, with some
suggestions that the situation will improve from the second quarter
onwards, while some of the lower level disruption could even be
recovered within the current quarter.
