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The impact on global trade caused by the container ship Ever
Given becoming lodged across the Suez Canal on 23 March has led to
concern in the shipping industry over the potential for similar
disruption caused by acts of political violence. As some shipping
companies re-route cargo around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope,
there have also been questions around piracy risks to these
vessels.
Sinai-based jihadist militants most likely do not have
the capability to cause significant damage or disable a cargo
vessel in the Suez Canal. There has been an active
jihadist insurgency in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula since 2014. IHS
Markit recorded 140 militant attacks in North Sinai in the last 12
months, but none within 50 km of the Suez Canal. Nevertheless, the
Islamic State in Sinai most likely see the Suez Canal as an
aspirational target and have probably been further encouraged by
the widely reported impact of the Ever Given blockage. The group's
capability to conduct attacks against shipping in the canal is
probably limited to one-off missile strikes using rocket-propelled
grenades (RPGs) or anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). These would
be very unlikely to cause more than superficial damage to a cargo
vessel, let alone to disable a vessel in the canal. Blockage of the
canal by a damaged vessel would only become more likely in the
event of a suicide attack using an explosives-laden dinghy. Current
levels of Egyptian security measures and surveillance along the
canal, however, make such an attack very unlikely.
Vessels re-routed around South Africa's Cape of Good
Hope are at lower risk from Somalia-based piracy than those using
the Suez Canal. Piracy risks off Somalia have reduced
significantly in recent years. IHS Markit recorded 12 suspicious
approaches by suspected pirates off Somalia in the last 12 months,
but no successful attacks. The last successful hijack of a
commercially significant vessel was in March 2017. Attacks against
larger commercial vessels are usually deterred or aborted due to
the presence of onboard armed security, demonstrating that while
there remains the intent to conduct acts of piracy, the capability
of assailants is insufficient for current security protocol. The
majority of attacks target vessels in the Gulf of Aden, en-route to
or from the Suez Canal. Vessels that have been rerouted around
South Africa to or from Asia would avoid the piracy risk area
altogether, while those rerouted to or from the Middle East Gulf
would pass Somalia at a much greater distance than they would
otherwise have done passing through the Gulf of Aden.
Vessels re-routed around the Cape of Good Hope would not
pass through areas affected by piracy in the Gulf of
Guinea. Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea is a significant
concern for commercial shipping. IHS Markit recorded 29 successful
boardings of vessels by pirates in the last 12 months, resulting in
140 crew members being kidnapped for ransom. The vast majority of
these attacks, however, are conducted in Nigerian waters and do not
extend beyond 300 nautical miles from the Nigerian coast. Vessels
traveling between the Cape of Good Hope and Europe or North America
bypass the Gulf of Guinea at some distance and are very unlikely to
be targeted.
Posted 01 April 2021 by Columb Strack, Principal Analyst - Global Cargo Risk, Economics & Country Risk and
Jack A. Kennedy, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit